Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
A slight quickening in quarterly growth to 0.6% in Q4 meant overall 2014 GDP growth of 2.9%. But our forecast for 2015 has been nudged down to 3.2% as export volume growth may be dampened more significantly by problems in key trade partners. Although regional military tensions and recent price deflation will slow the rate of investment, it remains fairly resilient and is set to accelerate in 2016-17 as stocks decline and exports pick up. Faster GDP growth and strengthening exports in 2016 reflect stronger Eurozone demand and the end to Russian recession, with the current blockage of trade with Russia also expected to ease. Although short-term risks to investment and growth are on the downside, they remain fairly low compared to others in the region as trade is more EU-directed and relations with Russia are less likely to worsen. Longer-term risks relate mainly to supply-side weakness given high emigration rates since 2008.
- : The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year