Libya: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issue.
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overvie.
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the countr.
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic deman.
- Private consumptio.
- Fixed investmen.
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP.
- Government consumptio.
- Exports of goods and service.
- Imports of goods and service.
- Consumer price.
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP.
- Government budget (% of GDP.
- Short-term interest rates (%.
- Long-term interest rates (%.
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar.
- Exchange rate (vs. euro.
- Economic Overvie.
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecast.
- Charts and Table.
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growt.
- Monthly industrial outpu.
- Business and consumer confidenc.
- Unemployment rat.
- Retail sale.
- Prices and earning.
- Consumption and investmen.
- Government balance and deb.
- GDP and industrial productio.
- Monetary policy and bond yield.
- Background Information on the countr.
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current positio.
Libya is sliding into civil war, with rival groups seeking to control the country and the official government facing huge challenges to its authority. With the rebel factions that helped to overthrow Gaddafi still fighting and the two competing governments seemingly intent on destroying each other and hitting the country’s main assets such as ports and oil and steel facilities in the process, GDP is estimated to have fallen 18% in 2014, the second year of steep decline. And with oil output dropping below 300,000 b/d at end-2014 after a pick-up in Q3, hopes of a rebound in GDP in 2015 may be thwarted unless the political and military turmoil ends soon. Lower oil output and exports have been compounded by the plunge in world oil prices to about US$50pb, further slashing revenues. As a result, the budget deficit is ballooning and the current account deficit is exploding to over 25% of GDP, leading to sharp depletion of reserves and the growing likelihood of devaluation as the government’s funding options are increasingly constrained.