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Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon

​Most economic activity indicators remain consistent with a stagnating economy amid continued regional problems and domestic political bickering that has led to policy inaction. Although at a 3-month high, December's PMI of 47.9 implies a continuing decline in private sector activity. The coincident indicator was up just 0.9% in the first nine months of 2015. Trade, construction and investment remain in negative territory, but tourist arrivals picked up due to a slightly better security situation and consumption is benefiting from lower oil prices and rising real wages. With little hope of an end to political paralysis, given the ongoing Syrian civil war, economic confidence will remain low, trade flows will continue to be disrupted and violent clashes will occur. GDP growth is forecast at just 1.7% this year after an estimated 1% in 2015. The trade deficit fell 15% to US$13.5bn in the first 11 months of 2015. Imports fell 14% due to sharply lower oil and non-fuel commodity prices, while the much lower level of exports fell by 11%. With tourism receipts picking up, we estimate the current account deficit narrowed to 15.7% of GDP in 2015 from 23.5% in 2014.

Lebanon: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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