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Country Economic Forecasts > Italy

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

GDP expanded by 0.2% in Q2, a touch lower than in Q1. Investment contributed to growth but net trade was a drag on activity for a second consecutive quarter. We expect exports to pick up in Q3 and for net trade to make a positive contribution, with quarterly GDP growth averaging close to 0.3% in Q3 and Q4. However, this sort of pace will only be sufficient to generate annual GDP growth of 1.1% in 2019, after 1.2% this year. Markets await the first budget from the Lega and Five Star government, anxious to see how much the budget deficit may widen. Our view remains that a conservative approach will prevail, with a targeted deficit of around 2% of GDP in 2019, but uncertainty remains high.

Italy: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
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