Italy: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables
covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Despite the political standstill of the last two months and the slight loss of momentum signalled in recent business surveys, the news on Italy’s economy is still reasonable. GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1, only marginally slower than in the eurozone. Although we expect a slightly faster pace in Q2, we now think that the economy will expand by 1.4% this year, down from our previous forecast of 1.5% and a touch lower than that seen in 2017. Moreover, there are downside risks related to the composition and nature of the next government.