Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Iraq continues to struggle in the face of its two main challenges – the Islamic State (IS) insurgency and ongoing weakness in oil prices, now seen averaging just US$53pb this year (down 46% from 2014). With government spending being cut as a result of sharply lower oil revenues, we expect GDP growth of just 1% this year, after a contraction of 2% in 2014. Growth remains sluggish despite increasing oil output. IEA data show that oil production rose by just over 8% to 3.3m b/d in 2014 and then climbed to 4.3m b/d in September 2015. If recent levels are sustained, output will average just under 4m b/d for the year as a whole, up around 20% from 2014. Given this backdrop, GDP should grow faster in the coming years; the IMF forecasts growth of 7-8% a year in 2016-18, based on oil output rising to 5.5m b/d. But given the major uncertainties, we are more cautious about rises in oil output and see growth at 3.8% in 2016 and then 3-3.5% in 2017-18. Lower oil revenues may lift the budget deficit to over 20% of GDP this year, while the current account is forecast to move from a sizeable surplus in 2014 to a deficit of 5% of GDP this year. With the oil price now forecast to fall to US$47pb in 2016, the twin deficits are expected to widen further in 2016 before starting to shrink in 2017 as oil prices rise.
Iraq: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year