Country Economic Forecasts - Iran Islamic Rep

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Country Economic Forecasts - Iran Islamic Rep

​The plunge in world oil prices, a tight fiscal stance and delayed consumption and investment decisions probably slowed the pace of GDP growth to 1.2% in 2015/16 from 4.3% in 2014/15. But the near-term outlook has improved following the lifting of most US, EU and UN economic sanctions on 16 January, and we now forecast growth at 4% in 2016/17 and 4.7% in 2017/18. Growth will be helped by higher oil production and exports as well as lower costs for trade and financial transactions, access to foreign assets and rising foreign investment. Oil output had already risen to 2.9m b/d in December, its highest since June 2012, as storage tanks were filled ahead of sanctions being lifted, and output should rise to the pre-sanctions capacity of 3.6m b/d within six months. But reclaiming its position as OPEC's second largest producer with output above 4m b/d will require more advanced technology and hence significant foreign investment. The government has been quick to boost trade and investment relations, particularly with France and Italy, with the purchase of 118 Airbus planes and Peugeot returning to Iran leading the way.

Iran: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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