The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables
covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
While GDP growth slowed sharply to 3.6% in 2017, this largely reflected one-off shocks from the easing of exchange controls and the impact of the surprise October elections. Underlying investment growth remains strong, spurred by a revival in foreign investor confidence and the boom in tourism, which survived the ISK appreciation of the past two years and is driving construction activity to cope with 2m+ visitors annually. New industries made competitive by cheap renewable energy and the long-established fishing sector ensure broader-based recovery than before 2008. Growth is now forecast at 3.5% in both 2018 and 2019, with inflation at about 2.5%, as rising output lifts the economy towards full employment and the stronger ISK draws in imports.