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Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong China

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Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong China

The economy was surprisingly strong at the start of the year, with GDP in Q1 surging 2.2% q/q (up 4.7% y/y), the fastest pace since 2011. Given the remarkable Q1 outturn, we now forecast 2018 GDP to grow by 3.6% (up from 3% last month). That said, we still look for growth momentum to moderate over the course of the year, partly due to the expected gradual softening in demand from China amid its modest financial tightening. Rising interest rates will also place some mild pressure on domestic demand. Indeed, since mid-May, the central bank has intervened again at the ‘weak-side’ of the Hong Kong dollar trading band (after intervening in April), and this has resulted in a decline in interbank liquidity – increasing the pressure on banks to raise their interest rates.

Hong Kong:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Fixed investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government consumption
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Consumer prices
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
Economic Overview
two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables
covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Unemployment rate
Retail sales
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Key Facts on the country
Map of the country
Key political facts
Long-term economic and social development
changes since 1980
Structure of GDP by output
latest year
Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
Corruption perceptions index- latest year
Structural economic indicators
changes since 1990
Destination of goods' exports -prior years
latest year
Composition of goods & services exports
latest year ​

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