Guinea: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.he topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.5% in 2013, down from nearly 4% in 2012.
The slowdown was a result of social unrest relating to the elections and lower investment in the mining sector.
However, the political situation has improved significantly since the new parliament convened in January 2014.
In addition, the country has attracted substantial interest in new mining opportunities, with the projects planned over the next five years estimated to be worth US$45bn. GDP growth is expected to grow by around 6% pa in the next few years before surging when the mines become productive.
The Simandou iron ore project is now expected to be completed at the end of 2018, with production projected at 40 million tonnes in 2019, before rising steadily to 100mn tonnes by 2023.
With iron ore prices currently in the region of US$100 per tonne, this will boost GDP substantially and rapidly move the large current account deficit into surplus and lead to sharply higher government revenues.