Grenada: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in 2013, only partly reversing the 1.8% decline recorded in 2012, driven by strengthening construction and agriculture. We forecast that GDP growth will edge up to 1.1% this year, reflecting a modest improvement in tourism after a sluggish performance in 2013, and with construction continuing to grow. On the plus side, the fairly robust growth expected in 2014 in the US, UK and Canadian economies, source of 57% of stay-over visitors, may trigger a stronger pick-up in tourism than currently expected. Preliminary agreement with the IMF was reached in March for a new US$22m three-year ECF. IMF involvement should encourage the government to implement the far-reaching reforms required to reduce the huge debt burden and boost the economy’s potential, and should help to ease concerns about the large twin deficits – the current account deficit remains around 25% of GDP and the budget deficit over 5% of GDP.