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Country Economic Forecasts - France


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

France: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year  

Country Economic Forecasts - France

Recent financial market turmoil in China has spilled over into financial markets in advanced economies, including France, where the CAC-Index has erased all of its 2015 gains. However, despite intensifying risks of a China hard landing, we continue to see the French recovery strengthening throughout 2016. Consumer sentiment in December remained close to its eight-year peak, revealing little impact from November’s terrorist attacks, while the renewed plunge in oil prices and gradual fall in unemployment will provide further support for household spending. Moreover, investment is set to become a more important driver of growth in 2016, given the stronger domestic and regional climate and continued easing in credit conditions, the latter helped by looser ECB policy. Following data revisions for previous quarters, we have nudged down our GDP growth estimate for 2015 to 1.1% from 1.2% last month, but 2016 is left unchanged at 1.5%. From 2017, growth should gather additional momentum with France making a stronger contribution to the broader Eurozone recovery.


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