Country Economic Forecasts - Equatorial Guinea
Since the 2014 oil price crash, GDP per head in Equatorial Guinea has fallen 34%, though the pace of the decline has slowed substantially as oil prices have stabilised. This collapse is also the result of a slide in oil output, which fell to 119,000 b/d in Q3 2019 compared with 250,000 b/d in 2012 and over 320,000 b/d in 2004. With output still in decline and oil prices expected to trend sideways, we forecast GDP to fall by 3-3.5% a year until 2022. But there are some upside risks as new oil fields are discovered and contracts for these are sold.
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