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Country Economic Forecasts - Egypt Arab Rep

Country Economic Forecasts - Egypt Arab Rep

​The January PMI recovered a little from a two-year low in December but was still below the 50 level, suggesting that non-oil private sector activity continues to contract. The main constraint for businesses remains foreign exchange shortages, while further depreciation of the black market EGP/US$ rate is pushing up costs. Tourist arrivals have plummeted since the crash of a Russian airliner in October. November tourist arrivals were down 38% on the year and more than 60% lower than in November 2010. As a result, our GDP growth forecast for the 2015/16 fiscal year (July-June) remains at just 2.5%, and we expect only a modest pick-up to 3.4% in 2016/17 and 2017/18. At the same time, inflation remains in double digits, the current account is over 5% of GDP and the budget deficit is over 11% of GDP, all of which add to the policy problems facing the authorities. 

Egypt: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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