Ecuador: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Oil prices fell during July, with the WTI oil price falling from over US$59pb at the end of June to under US$48pb a month later. We now expect that WTI oil prices will average below US$60pb next year and not recover to the levels seen during 2011-14 for another decade. Against this backdrop, Ecuadorian GDP growth will be less robust over the forecast period than over the last five years or so. There will be a much lower level of oil revenue to recycle around the rest of the economy than the government would have assumed a year or so ago. In addition, the external and fiscal deficits are likely to widen to over 5% of GDP. The Q1 national accounts prompted a small upgrade to our forecast of GDP growth in 2015, to 1.8%, but the financial situation has become more pressured with the latest fall in oil prices and if maintained this could hold back growth prospects in 2016 and beyond.