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Country Economic Forecasts - China


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Country Economic Forecasts - China

Global financial markets made a very nervous start to the year, in large part driven by worries about the underlying strength of the Chinese economy. However, China’s still underdeveloped stock market is typically not driven by economic fundamentals. Moreover, recent data do not indicate a significant weakening. Officially reported GDP growth eased to 6.8% in Q4, while our alternative, bottom-up, estimate of GDP showed growth of 6.1% in Q4 (6.3% on average in 2015); both measures point to only a relatively gradual slowdown. Consumption continues to cushion the weakness in industry, with rapid growth in real household income supporting private spending and fast expansion of the service sector. This should also reduce the risk of labour market stress in the short term. However, we expect consumer spending growth to ease this year as wage increases moderate. And the risk remains that the weakness in industry spills over more forcefully into consumption and the wider economy. Overall, we forecast that officially reported GDP growth will ease to 6.3% this year and 6% in 2017, with real estate construction remaining a drag and official fiscal policy playing a larger role in supporting growth than in the past.


China: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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