Chad: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to just under 4% in 2013 as a bumper harvest only partly offset reduced oil output, the latter hit by technical problems. But a growth spurt is now expected, to over 10% this year and about 9% in 2015, as new oil fields are brought into production by China’s CNPC and Canadian firm Caracal (now part of Glencore). Oil currently accounts for a third of GDP and 70% of tax revenues, but diversification hopes are pinned on livestock, cotton, petrochemicals and gum arabic, sectors in which Chad benefits from competitive advantage. Prospects have been enhanced by a three-year US$122m Extended Credit Facility recently agreed with the IMF to cover a recent balance of payments shortfall due to lower oil receipts. The first tranche of US$20m has already been released.