Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Following the release of detailed Q4 national accounts data, we have lifted our 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.4% last month. Q4 showed stronger-than-expected rises in government consumption, investment and, most significantly, exports. During the quarter, exports rose 1.4% y/y, following two quarters of decline. This suggests that recovery of the external sector is under way at a faster pace than initially expected, leading to an upward revision of our 2019 export forecast to 4.3%. At the same time, import growth slowed and we have lowered our 2019 import forecast slightly, reinforcing the improvement in net trade. This will provide a boost to the economy, which had previously relied heavily on domestic demand. For 2020, we expect growth to slow to 3.1% as domestic demand eases further.
Bulgaria: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
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