Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil
The 2018 presidential campaign is officially on and the race is even more fragmented than usual. Of the 10 registered candidates, we think at least four stand a real chance of winning and a second round of voting is almost certain. Right-wing firebrand Jair Bolsonaro, who is leading the polls since jailed former president Lula was officially banned from running on 31 August, will most likely make it to the run-off. However, we think that his high rejection rate, the inability to form alliances and his extremist rhetoric mean that he will lose the second round on 28 October. Lula’s running mate, left-wing Fernando Haddad (PT), centre-right Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and centre-left Marina Silva (REDE) are equally likely winners. Volatility will remain high in the next 10 weeks.