Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil
Our view on Brazil remains largely the same as earlier in the year, notwithstanding some minor changes to the GDP growth estimates. Q4 national accounts data showed a surprising slowdown during the tail end of 2017, a picture that diverged from the acceleration in growth suggested by the monthly data. Moreover, the composition of growth in Q4 was not entirely bad, showing a long-awaited revival in investment as well as a setback in consumer spending (the latter reflecting the fading of one-off tax breaks provided for in Q2). As a result, the downgrade to our 2018 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.5%, was entirely mechanical, due to the weaker statistical carry-over from 2017.
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