Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia And Herzegovina

Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia And Herzegovina

​GDP growth picked up to about 2.5% in 2015 and is set be just over 3% this year, supported by new financial agreements with the IMF and EU, to which a formal accession request will be submitted in mid-February. Industrial exports, tourism and remittances are narrowing the current account deficit and generating hard-currency revenues that can revive consumption and domestic investment in 2016-18. Steps to reduce employers' wage and administrative costs and rein in corruption are being taken under IMF pressure, as the need for multilateral deficit financing forces governments in both entities to resist trade union demands. Downside risks remain high owing to the need for a new IMF deal to keep the external and fiscal deficits financeable. In addition, there are obstacles to business from bureaucracy and corruption, and fears of internal political division as constituent governments vie for more autonomy while confronting discontent over IMF reforms. Although main legislatures united in 2015 to pass reforms demanded by multilateral agencies, they continue to block constitutional changes needed to streamline the administration and meet long-term EU requirements.

Bosnia: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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