Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia And Herzegovina
Last year’s GDP growth of just under 1% was better than expected after severe flood damage in May (initially costed at 10% of GDP) and uncertainty surrounding October’s general election. But our forecast remains subdued, with growth seen at 2.5% this year and likely to remain below 4% over the forecast period. These rates are modest in light of recessions in 2009 and 2012 and subsequent weak recoveries that left 2014 GDP not much higher than the level in 2008. And the political situation is still a significant constraint on investment and growth, with a government only formed in late-March (six months after the election) and still having to balance demands from six parties representing three territorial entities. Although the EU’s unfreezing of the association agreement will promote export recovery in the medium term, lack of constitutional reform rules out accession talks, and strained relations with all neighbouring countries will deter revival of regional trade.
- : The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year