Belarus: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The Ukraine crisis has improved aspects of the short-term outlook for Belarus, making Russia readier to give economic support to prevent any comparable discontent and the EU more respectful of Minsk’s mediating role. Efforts to sidestep the reciprocal Russia-EU sanctions will boost transit trade in 2014-15, and this year’s GDP growth forecast has been lifted to 0.8% after a good early grain crop lifted the pace to 1.2% in H1. But slow growth and high inflation will persist in H2 and in 2015; GDP is expected to grow just 1.3% in 2015 as the large (albeit declining) external deficit and return to public borrowing keep monetary policy tight. Prospects should improve more noticeably from 2016, as inflation (still around 18% this year) starts to subside and export markets recover, but political risks remain a deterrent to FDI inflows.