Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
Investment, consumption and exports lifted the growth rate to 3% in 2018, but the expected slowdown in 2019-21 is now set to be longer and deeper after an unusually bitter row with Russia over oil tax changes. While Russia is likely to ensure the budgetary loss stops short of causing recession or renewed debt problems, its sudden cut to the longstanding oil subsidy reflects its own fiscal strains and determination to stop Ukraine getting too close to China or the EU. With debt and inflation concerns keeping the budget tight and the approach of elections in 2020 restraining investment, growth is forecast to slow to about 2.5% a year in 2091-22.
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