: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP growth slowed to 4% in Q4 2014 from 5.1% in Q3. This slowdown was less marked than expected; although oil and gas production fell nearly 6% on the year, non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 6.7% with good performances across most sectors. For 2014 as a whole, GDP grew 4.5%. Against the background of lower oil prices (now forecast at US$61 a barrel this year, down 38% from 2014) and hence lower revenues and spending cuts, we forecast GDP growth will slow to 2.7% in 2015, with 2.9% expansion seen in 2016, as the non-oil economy slows. We expect the spending cuts to be concentrated on investment and the projects market, as has been the case since 2011. But there is reported to be some US$22bn due to be spent on new projects in real estate, industry, services, tourism and infrastructure. Lower oil revenues will see the budget deficit more than double to almost 10% of GDP this year, while the current account is expected to swing from a surplus of just over 6% of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2.4%.