Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
With oil output still falling, the oil price recovery in H2 came too late to stop a second year of GDP decline in 2017; the economy is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% last year as non-oil growth slowed to below 2.5%. A rise in gas output and exports via newly-expanded pipelines will restore growth to around 2% in 2018, with agriculture and industrial sectors raising non-oil growth and diversifying exports. Plans are in place for infrastructure and business environment improvement that could lift growth to about 3% in 2019-20, within fiscal parameters that bring inflation below 5% by 2019.
- Azerbaijan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
- These could include such topics as:
- - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year