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Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina

Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina

The central bank (BCRA) took markets by surprise by calling an extraordinary meeting on 27 April to raise the policy rate by 300bp to 30.25% only three days after its regular bi-monthly meeting, at which authorities had left rates on hold. The BCRA tried hard to avoid raising rates by intervening in the FX market, but that strategy proved too costly. Last week alone, the BCRA depleted US$3bn in reserves only to see the peso (ARS) weaken 3.5% to 20.9/$1 before the decision to hike helped the ARS stabilise at 20.6/$ (previously the BCRA had managed to keep the peso rangebound at 20.1-20.3/$1 since February). We forecast the ARS at 21 by end-Q2 and 22/$ by end-2018. The higher profile for interest rates should support the ARS, thereby helping inflation moderate to 21% in Q4.

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Fixed investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government consumption
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Consumer prices
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
Economic Overview
two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables
covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Unemployment rate
Retail sales
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Key Facts on the country
Map of the country
Key political facts
Long-term economic and social development
changes since 1980
Structure of GDP by output
latest year
Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
Corruption perceptions index- latest year
Structural economic indicators
changes since 1990
Destination of goods' exports -prior years
latest year
Composition of goods & services exports
latest year ​

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