Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
There have been important changes to the forecast in recent months. Argentina’s apparently strong recovery in H1 2017 lost momentum during H2, with a clear deterioration in the composition of growth. Moreover, the government’s bet on tackling inflation in a very gradual fashion backfired, with a 150bp increase in inflation expectations and a 10% sell-off in the peso since the authorities raised the inflation target and subsequently cut interest rates. In summary, the outlook is now unquestionably worse than we thought three months ago; we expect higher inflation in 2018 and no acceleration in growth.
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