Angola: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP growth is set to be held back for a second successive year by stalling oil output, following continued production bottlenecks and unscheduled maintenance work. Furthermore, the new LNG production facility that opened in 2013 is once again side-lined for repairs, and may not resume operations until mid-2015. The non-oil sector should provide some offset, but will not be enough to deliver economic growth of more than 4.5% this year and 5% in 2015. The decline in oil revenue has led to a steady erosion in the current account surplus, expected to fall to just 2.6% of GDP in 2014 from double-digit levels a few years ago. Given the sharp fall in oil prices recently, the current account is expected to move into a small deficit in 2015 as export revenues decline further. In an attempt to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons, the government has ramped up public spending in recent years, with a focus on infrastructure projects to encourage greater investment in non-oil sectors such as agriculture and industry. This in turn has fuelled a boom in construction, helping to offset lower oil output.