Tajikistan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Economic growth has held up reasonably well despite near-stagnation in the Russian economy. GDP grew by 6.7% in H1 compared with a full-year outturn of 7.4% in 2013, underpinned by a 28% rise in investment and robust consumption, with remittances inflows falling back only slightly and public consumption remaining strong. But we expect the impact of the Russian downturn to intensify in H2 and into 2015, which will hit remittances (equal to 48% of GDP) that come almost entirely from Russia. With commodity prices subdued and monetary policy tightening, we now expect GDP growth to slow to 5.5% in 2015 from an expected 6.2% this year. Over the medium term, we forecast growth of about 6% a year. The trade deficit climbed sharply in the first eight months of 2014 as exports shrank 14% while imports rose by almost 20% on the back of strong domestic demand. As a result, and with remittances falling sharply, we expect the current account deficit to widen from about 1% of GDP in 2013 to almost 12% of GDP this year, with a further climb to over 18% seen in 2015.