Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

​Commodity prices were extremely volatile in October and early-November, as world leaders gathered for COP26 in Glasgow. Fears about energy shortages were dampened by increased supply of Chinese coal and Russian gas. China has also hit a soft patch in terms of demand, which undermined the bullish narrative for many commodities.  In oil markets, Brent prices ignored the broader volatility and traded steadily above US$80pb. The OPEC+ group had another meeting in early-November, but for the second time they decided to stick with the status quo. We expect the oil market to swing into oversupply soon and prices should trend lower as a result, reaching US$61pb by end-2022. 


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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