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Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

​Commodity markets have shown mixed trends in the past month. Some markets, such as oil, have rallied on the back of a less gloomy view of the world economic outlook, but there is bearishness in other markets such as iron ore because of the rapid pace of supply growth. While global manufacturing PMIs are still below 50, the latest indicators for orders and output are now pointing to mild improvement rather than a move into recession. The recent modest rally in oil prices seemed to be mainly driven by short-covering on hopes of a US-China trade deal. This, combined with an upswing in oil demand, has helped to boost sentiment despite a weak fundamental backdrop. The biggest challenge for oil bulls is that non-OPEC supply growth will remain rapid for now, forcing OPEC to dig deeper and deeper to prevent the market swinging into oversupply. Oil prices look set to fall in the year ahead without significant OPEC support. 


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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