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Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

​The year 2018 turned out to be a difficult one for many commodity producers, with sharp price falls seen in crude oil and base metal markets. Iron ore and Chinese steel prices also dropped. Fears about the demand outlook clearly played a key role and sentiment around China became very bearish due to the mounting trade war with the US. We expect most commodity prices to trend marginally higher in 2019 and oil should lead the way. This uptrend is mainly a supply-driven story for oil. We expect OPEC to remain disciplined in its attempts to rebalance the oil market. For the base metals, we expect prices to get some support from higher oil prices and a weaker US$. Also, we think that there is scope for improved sentiment about China. We expect iron ore prices to fall in 2019 as China's steel production growth slows due to weak downstream demand and lower margins, which will feed through into poor demand for iron ore. Prices will face further downward pressure from strong supply from Australia and Brazil in 2019.


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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