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Russia Oil and Gas Industry Analysis and Forecast Report (Q1 2016)

Russia Oil and Gas Industry Analysis and Forecast Report (Q1 2016)


"This country Oil and gas industry report provides comprehensive Insight on upstream, midstream and downstream opportunities, risks, infrastructure, trade and competition. Through integrated research, use of proprietary data and forecast modelling and inputs from industry experts, the report provides complete research on the oil and gas value chain.

The premier report provides analysis of key opportunities and associated challenges facing the oil and gas industry. Amidst several challenges confronting the oil and gas industry including fall in prices, changing market conditions, oil and gas sector risk and shift in competitive landscape, the report provides detailed insights into critical short and long term factors set to shape the outlook.

The research work examines the existing infrastructure (EP, LNG, refinery, storage and pipelines assets), market conditions, investment climate and competitive landscape of upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. Detailed information on fields, blocks, pipelines, refineries, storage assets and LNG terminals along with Asset by asset details of all existing and planned projects across the oil and gas value chain are detailed in the report.

Key trends, strategies and projects being planned by companies, investors and governments are analyzed along with the feasibility of new projects in the oil and gas markets. Further, expected start up, impact of competing assets in other countries and overall industry developments, investments required and other related information on planned projects is provided in detail.

Driven by strong methodology and proprietary databases, reliable projections of oil, gas, petroleum products, coal, and LNG- supply and demand are made to 2025. Detailed outlook of the industry in terms of production forecasts of oil, gas, LNG, LPG, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil along with supporting parameters of primary energy demand, GDP and population are included.

The report also analyzes three key companies in the oil and gas industry. Business operations, SWOT Analysis and financial performance of the companies are provided. All latest developments in the industry along with their possible impact on the industry are included in the report.

Scope

Coverage:
Entire value chain including Fields, blocks, oil, products, chemicals storage, underground gas storage, refineries, LNG and pipelines

Planning and Strategy:
Supply and Demand Forecasts of oil, gas, LNG, Gasoline, LPG, Diesel, Fuel oil, 2000 to 2025 - Capacity outlook (Asset wise) for Refineries (CDU, Coking, FCC, HCC), LNG (Regas/Liquefaction), Pipelines (Oil, Gas and Products), Storage (Oil, products and chemicals), 2000- 2020 - SWOT Analysis - Benchmark with Peer Countries on four pillars - Drivers, future trends and restraints analysis

Opportunities:
New projects (Information on investments, current status, routes, owners, construction contracts of Key planned pipelines, planned refineries, new units, expansions and upgrades, exploration blocks on offer, LNG terminals, expansions, new storage facilities)

Infrastructure Analysis:
Exploration block details, licensing rounds and bidding announcements - Field wise and company wise annual production data for all major oil and gas fields - LNG capacity outlook (2005- 2020), trade imports, utilization rates (2005- 2014), operational and planned terminals (location, start up, operator, ownership and capacity)

Storage:
Oil and gas storage capacity outlook (2005-2020), tank farm details under operation and planned

Pipelines:
Crude oil, petroleum product and natural gas pipelines under operation and planned
CDU, coking, FCC, HCC capacity outlook by refinery (2005- 2020), refineries under operation and implementation (complexity, capacity, location, start up, operator, ownership), refinery expansions

Competitive Landscape:
Market structure (2015) and Company wise production/ capacity outlook (2005- 2020) for all midstream and downstream sectors - Company wise oil and gas production (Upstream) is provided - Three leading companies’ business profiles

Industry Updates and Recent Developments:
Market Monitor on entire oil and gas value chain "


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures .
2 Russia Oil and Gas Overview
2.1 Russia Hydrocarbons Sector Snapshot .
2.2 Russia Energy Balance, 2015
2.3 Russia Oil and Gas Infrastructure across Value Chain, 2015
2.4 Russia Primary Energy Demand Outlook, 2000- 2025 .
2.5 Russia Primary Energy Mix by Fuel (%), 2015
2.6 Regulatory, NOC and Licensing Authorities
3 Russia Oil and Gas Planning and Strategic Analysis
3.1 Trends and Drivers of Russia Oil and Gas Markets
3.1.1 Low complex Refineries to Cut Runs in Short-term to Confront Low margins .
3.1.2 Russia Plans to Diversify its Natural Gas Export Options.
3.1.3 Russia To Face Complications In Its Pipeline Project With Turkey
3.2 Russia Oil and Gas SWOT Analysis
3.2.1 Key Strengths
3.2.2 Key Weaknesses
3.2.3 Key Opportunities
3.2.4 Key Threats and Challenges .
3.3 Russia Oil and Gas Environment Benchmarking with Peer Markets
3.3.1 Overall Ranking of Markets .
3.3.2 Demographic and Economic Index
3.3.3 Oil and Gas Supply Index
3.3.4 Oil and Gas Demand Index
3.3.5 Oil and Gas Infrastructure Index
4 Russia Oil and Gas Market Outlook and Forecasts
4.1 Russia Crude Oil Production Forecast (yearly), 2005- 2025 .
4.2 Russia Marketed Natural Gas Supply Forecast (yearly), 2005- 2025
4.3 Motor and Aviation Gasoline Production Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025 .
4.4 Diesel/ Gas Oil Production Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025.
4.5 LPG Production Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025 .
4.6 Fuel Oil Production Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025
4.7 Russia Crude Oil Demand Forecast (yearly), 2005- 2025.
4.8 Russia Natural Gas Demand Forecast (yearly), 2005- 2025 .
4.9 Motor and Aviation Gasoline Demand Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025 .
4.10 Diesel/ Gas Oil Demand Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025
4.11 LPG Demand Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025 .
4.12 Fuel Oil Demand Forecast in Russia (Annual), 2005- 2025 .
5 Potential investment opportunities in Russia oil and gas sector, 2016-2020 .
5.1 New developments and future projects in upstream sector .
5.1.1 Russia Upstream Opportunities
5.1.2 Exploration and Production Licenses by Major Company
5.2 New Developments And Future Projects In Midstream Sector .
5.2.1 Investment Opportunities in Russia LNG Industry .
5.2.2 Investment Opportunities in Russia Pipeline Industry
5.3 New developments and future projects in downstream sector
5.3.1 Investment Opportunities in Russia Refining Industry .
5.3.2 Investment Opportunities in Russia Storage Industry .
6 Russia Economy and Political Analysis .
6.1 Russia Geographic Location
6.2 Key Economic Indicators
6.3 Russia GDP Outlook to 2025.
6.4 Russia Population Outlook to 2025
7 Russia Oil and Gas Industry Competitive Landscape, 2015 .
7.1 Russia Oil Production – market shares by company, 2014 .
7.2 Russia Gross Natural Gas Production – market shares by company, 2014
7.3 Russia Refinery sector – market shares by company, 2015
7.4 Russia LNG sector – market shares by company, 2015
7.5 Russia oil, petroleum products and chemicals storage sector – market shares by
company, 2015
8 Russia Oil and Gas Upstream Market Analysis
8.1 Russia Exploration and Production Sector- Proven Oil Reserves .
8.2 Russia Field wise Crude Oil Production, 2005-2014
8.3 Russia Company wise Crude Oil Production, 2005-2014 .
8.4 Russia Exploration and Production Sector- Proven Gas Reserves
8.5 Russia Field wise Gross Natural Gas Production, 2005- 2014
8.6 Russia Company wise Gross Natural Gas Production, 2005- 2014 .
8.7 Russia Upstream Industry- Market Monitor .
8.7.1 Russian April Oil Output Edges Down To 10.86 Million Bpd- April 2016 .
8.7.2 Russia's Gazprom Neft to Delay Novoportovskoye Oilfield Launch- April 2016 .
8.7.3 Rosneft, Facing Natural Output Decline, Floats Idea of Oil Production Cut- March
2016
8.7.4 LUKOIL bags Baltic Sea block- February 2016 .
9 Russia LNG Market Analysis
9.1 Russia LNG industry snapshot, 2015 .
9.2 Russia LNG supply/demand outlook, 2005 – 2020
9.3 Russia LNG infrastructure analysis .
9.3.1 Operational LNG terminals- location, start-up, capacity, storage, operator, technology
and ownership .
9.3.2 Under construction LNG terminals – location, status, Start-up, Capex, companies and
technology
9.3.3 Planned LNG terminals - location, Status, start-up, Capex, companies and technology
9.3.4 Proposed/Announced LNG terminals- location, status, start-up, Capex, companies and
technology
9.4 Russia terminal wise LNG capacity outlook, 2005-2020
9.5 Russia LNG sale purchase agreements (SPA) contract details
9.6 Russia company wise LNG capacity outlook 2005-2020 .
9.7 Russia LNG Industry- Market Monitor
9.7.1 Yamal LNG’s first liquefaction train will be launched without additional financing-
March 2016 .
9.7.2 Russia's Gazprom, Shell talks over on Baltic LNG project-September 2015 .
9.7.3 Rosneft’s Far East LNG Falls Behind Schedule- September 2015
10 Russia Refinery Market Analysis
10.1 Russia refinery market snapshot, 2015.
10.2 Russia operational refinery details- startup, capacities, location, operators and owners
10.3 Russia planned refinery details- status, Capex, startup, capacities and companies
10.4 Russia Primary refining capacity outlook, 2005-2020
10.5 Russia secondary refining capacity outlook, 2005-2020 .
10.6 Crude Distillation Capacity Forecast by Refinery, 2005- 2020.
10.7 Refinery wise coking capacity outlook, 2005-2020
10.8 Refinery wise fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)capacity outlook, 2005-2020
10.9 Refinery wise Hydro Cracking(HCC) capacity outlook, 2005-2020 .
10.10 Russia Petroleum Products production, 2015 .
10.11 Russia petroleum products consumption, 2015
10.12 Russia Refining capacity outlook by company, 2005-2020
10.13 Russia Refining Industry- Market Monitor
10.13.1 Rosneft and PV OIL Signed an Unprecedented Long Term Crude Oil Supply
Contract- June 2016
10.13.2 Indonesia, Russia business ties hit new high- May 2016 .
10.13.3 Rosneft Oil Company closed the transaction of selling 15% shares in Vankorneft
JSC to ONGC Videsh Limited- May 2016 .
10.13.4 Rosneft refineries complete transition to Euro 5 motor fuels production- December
2015
11 Russia Oil and Gas Storage Market Analysis .
11.1 Russia operational Storage Terminal Details- startup, capacity, tanks, operator and
owners
11.2 Russia planned Storage Terminal Details- startup, capacity, tanks, operator and owners
11.2.1 Planned Storage Terminals .
11.3 Russia Oil Storage Capacity by Terminal
11.4 Oil Storage Capacity by Company, 2015 .
11.5 Russia storage Industry- Market Monitor .
11.5.1 Rotterdam Scraps Plans for Russian-Backed Oil Storage Terminal- July 2015 .
11.5.2 New Russia PL Lifts Litasco's Europe-bound Diesel Exports from Vystosk- April
2016
12 Russia Pipeline Market Analysis .
12.1 Major Crude Oil Pipelines in Russia
12.2 Major Petroleum Product Pipelines in Russia
12.3 Major Natural Gas Pipelines in Russia.
12.4 Russia Planned Pipeline Details- 2016-2020
12.5 Russia pipeline Industry- Market Monitor .
12.5.1 New gas pipeline will help Russia circumvent Ukraine- June 2016
12.5.2 CNPC to Start Laying Second China-Russia Oil Pipeline in June- May 2016 .
12.5.3 Russia, China Continue Talks on Western Route Gas Pipeline- May 2016 .
13 Competitor Operations and Business Profiles
13.1 OAO Gazprom
13.1.1 Summary .
13.1.2 Business Description .
13.1.3 SWOT Analysis .
13.1.4 Contact Information .
13.1.5 Recent Financial Performance
13.2 OJSC Rosneft Oil Company
13.2.1 Key Information
13.2.2 Business Description .
13.2.3 SWOT Analysis .
13.2.4 Contact Information .
13.2.5 Key Financial Information .
13.3 OAO Lukoil Oil Company
13.3.1 Key Information
13.3.2 Business Description .
13.3.3 SWOT Analysis .
13.3.4 Contact Information .
13.3.5 Key Financial Information .
14 Appendix
14.1 Abbreviations
14.2 Sources and Methodology .
14.3 Contact Information
14.4 Disclaimer . 152
Table 1: Russia Oil and Gas Industry Overview 11
Table 2: Russia Primary Energy Demand Forecast, 2000- 2025 13
Table 3: Regional Oil and Gas Benchmarking- Overall Ranking 20
Table 4: Regional Oil and Gas Benchmarking - Demographic and Economic Index 20
Table 5: Regional Oil and Gas Benchmarking - Supply Index 21
Table 6: Regional Oil and Gas Benchmarking- Demand Index 21
Table 7: Regional Oil and Gas Benchmarking- Infrastructure Index 22
Table 8: Russia Crude Oil Production Outlook, 2005-2025 23
Table 9: Russia Natural Gas Production Outlook, 2005-2025 25
Table 10: Russia Motor and Aviation Gasoline Production Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 27
Table 11: Russia Diesel/Gas Oil Production Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 29
Table 12: Russia LPG Production Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 31
Table 13: Russia Fuel Oil Production Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 33
Table 14: Russia Crude Oil Demand Outlook, 2005-2025 35
Table 15: Russia Natural Gas Demand Outlook, 2005-2025 37
Table 16: Russia Motor and Aviation Gasoline Demand Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 39
Table 17: Russia Diesel/ Gas Oil Demand Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 41
Table 18: Russia LPG Demand Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 43
Table 19: Russia Fuel Oil Demand Forecast, Kb/d, 2005- 2025 45
Table 20: Russia Exploration, Offered Block Details (I) 47
Table 21: Russia Exploration, Offered Block Details (II) 48
Table 22: Russia Exploration, Offered Block Details (III) 49
Table 23: Russia Exploration, Offered Block Details (IV) 50
Table 24: Russia Exploration, Offered Block Details (V) 51
Table 25: Russia Planned LNG Terminals , 2016-2020 53
Table 26: Russia- Planned Pipeline details 54
Table 27: Russia Upcoming Refinery Details, 2016- 2020 55
Table 28: Planned Storage Terminals in Russia– Capacity and Owners Details 56
Table 29: Russia GDP Forecast, 2000- 2025 59
Table 30: Russia Population Forecast, 2000- 2025 60
Table 31: Russia Proven Oil Reserves, Billion barrels, 2000-2015 66
Table 32: Russia Crude Oil Production by Major Fields, 2005-2014 68
Table 33: Russia Crude Oil Production by Major Fields, 2005-2014 69
Table 34: Russia- Crude oil Production by Surgutneftgaz Fields, Kb/d, 2010-2014 70
Table 35: Russia, Crude Oil Production by Major Company, Kb/d, 2005-2014 70
Table 36: Russia Proven Gas Reserves, Tcm 2000-2015 71
Table 37: Russia Gross Natural Gas Production by Key Field, MMSCFD, 2005-2014 72
Table 38: Russia Gross Natural Gas Production by Company, 2005-2014 73
Table 39: Russia– LNG Industry Snapshot, 2015 77
Table 40: Russia LNG Capacity Forecasts, mtpa, 2005- 2020 77
Table 41: Russia LNG Import/ Export Forecasts, million tonnes, 2005- 2020 78
Table 42: Russia– Operational Liquefaction Terminal Details 79
Table 43: Russia–Under Construction Liquefaction Terminal Details 79
Table 44: Russia Planned LNG Liquefaction Terminals Details 80
Table 45: Russia Planned LNG Regasification Terminal Details 80
Table 46: Russia Proposed LNG Liquefaction Terminal Details 81
Table 47: Russia Liquefaction Capacity Forecasts by Terminal, mtpa, 2005- 2020 81
Table 48: Russia Regasification Capacity Forecasts by Terminal, mtpa, 2005- 2020 81
Table 49: Russia– Key LNG Contract Details (2) 82
Table 50: Russia– Key LNG Contract Details (2) 83
Table 51: Russia Liquefaction Capacity Forecasts by Company, mtpa, 2005- 2020 84
Table 52: Russia Regasification Capacity Forecasts by Company, mtpa, 2005- 2020 84
Table 53: Russia Refinery Industry Statistics, 2015 86
Table 54: Russia Operational Refinery Details, 2015 (1) 88
Table 55: Russia Operational Refinery Details, 2015 (2) 89
Table 56: Russia Upcoming Refinery Details, 2016- 2020 90
Table 57: Russia Historic and Projected Refining Capacity, Mb/d, 2005- 2020 90
Table 58: Russia Secondary Unit Capacities Forecast, 2005- 2020 91
Table 59: Refinery wise CDU Capacity Outlook in Russia, Kb/d, 2005-2020 (1) 92
Table 60: Refinery wise CDU Capacity Outlook in Russia, Kb/d, 2005-2020 (2) 93
Table 61: Refinery wise Coking Capacity Outlook in Russia, Kb/d, 2005-2020 94
Table 62: Refinery wise FCC Capacity Outlook in Russia, Kb/d, 2005-2020 95
Table 63: Refinery wise HCC Capacity Outlook in Russia, Kb/d, 2005-2020 96
Table 64: Russia Products Production Mix, 2015 97
Table 65: Russia Products Consumption Mix, 2015 97
Table 66: Russia Refining Capacity by Company, kb/d, 2005- 2020 98
Table 67: Russia Total Storage Capacity Forecast (Mmcm), 2005-2020 102
Table 68: Oil, Products and Chemicals Storage Terminals in Russia- Start Up, Location,
Operator, Ownership Details- (1) 103
Table 69: Oil, Products and Chemicals Storage Terminals in Russia- Start Up, Location,
Operator, Ownership Details- (2) 104
Table 70: Planned Oil, Products and Chemicals Storage Terminals in Russia- Start Up,
Location, Operator, Ownership Details 105
Table 71: Russia Terminal wise Storage Capacity Forecast (Thousand m3), 2005-2020 (1) 105
Table 72: Russia Terminal wise Storage Capacity Forecast (Thousand m3), 2005-2020 (2) 106
Table 73: Russia Terminal wise Storage Capacity Forecast (Thousand m3), 2005-2020 (3) 107
Table 74: Russia Storage Capacity by Company (thousand m3), 2015 107
Table 75: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (I) 110
Table 76: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (II) 111
Table 77: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (III) 112
Table 78: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (IV) 113
Table 79: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (V) 114
Table 80: Russia Crude Oil Pipeline Details (VI) 115
Table 81: Russia Product Pipeline Details (I) 116
Table 82: Russia Product Pipeline Details (II) 117
Table 83: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (I) 118
Table 84: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (II) 119
Table 85: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (III) 120
Table 86: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (IV) 121
Table 87: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (V) 122
Table 88: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (VI) 123
Table 89: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (VII) 124
Table 90: Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Details (VIII) 125
Table 91: Russia Planned Pipeline details 126
Table 92: OAO Gazprom - Top Level Information 131
Table 93: Gazprom Group- Financial Snapshot, 2014-2015 138
Table 94: Rosneft - Top Level Information 140
Table 95: Rosneft - Financial Highlights, in Billions of Russian Rubles, 2014-2015 145
Table 96: OAO Lukoil - Top Level Information 146
Table 97: OAO Lukoil - Financial Highlights, 2014-2015 150

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