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2017 NBJ Supplement Business Report

2017 NBJ Supplement Business Report

There is a lot of talk these days about “the new normal.” We could see the expression as the catch-phrase equivalent of throwing up our arms and surrendering to a new set of rules and realities that we may not like but we have to work with anyway. Most of the “new normal” talk echoes o% of Washington politics, where the new normal is a rebranding of chaos as the like-it-or-not expected order of affairs, but in the supplement industry it means something different.

For companies in the nutrition industry, the “new normal” may be very different, less desperate, less exasperating, more hopeful. For us, the new normal could include the $41.1 billion in sales on 6 percent growth NBJ estimates for 2016. This is a notch up from 5.9 percent in 2015, suggesting the industry has settled in to what feels like a modest pace, after recovering from the historic slowdown in 2014 (when the industry, reeling from a spate of negative headlines, slowed to 5.1 percent from 7.5 percent the year before).

So “the new normal” starts to sound like the good times are over but the industry has found its footing. Omega 3s, a major target of the negative headlines circa 2013, have crawled out of

While 1.9 percent might not sound like a lot in the supplement world, it’s a vast improvement over the negative 0.5 percent in 2015 or the plunge to negative 5.4 percent in 2013.

The new normal is sounding better all the time.

The NBJ Supplement Business Report is the guide to that new normal—the numbers and the nuance, the qualitative and the quantitative squeezed into 378 pages with 123 charts and commentary from the most thoughtful voices in the industry.

Those voices, and their perspectives, are more important than ever.

Among the reasons those perspectives, and the numbers to back them up, are so important is that the new normal for supplements does include some shadow of Washington drama. The new normal there, of course, is that there is no normal and at press time, that seems to grow more apparent by the hour in a news cycle measured in minutes. In February’s NBJ Dark Issue, we wrote of a “post-regulatory” age with the Trump administration telegraphing a business-friendly era of less enforcement and fewer regulations and ominous actions like the New Dietary Ingredient guidance being sidelined indefinitely. Back in February, the debate was about how the industry should react—there was almost a certainty to the uncertainty. Thee game now seems more about who is going to be in charge than what they are going to do. That game only starts in the oval office. e ice is thin in the nation’s capital this spring. With supplement champion Jason Chaffetz announcing in April that he wouldn’t seek a second term, and a month later telling constituents he’d leave Capitol Hill at the end of June, the whole structure of political allies in Congress gets thrown into question. Trade groups thought they had time to find a replacement to head the House contingent of the Dietary Supplement Caucus, but timetables can spin like a turntable these days.

Welcome to the new normal.

The question becomes what to do with steady growth and the possibility that the spotlight will be trained on Washington indefinitely (does the New York Times have room on the front page for anything that doesn’t include at least one Trump family member?). Collaboration becomes the obvious answer. It’s been the answer since early 2015, when the New York attorney general’s herbal supplement grandstanding threw the industry into a handwringing 5t. Following that media pummeling, trade groups began working together and major retailers stepped up their gatekeeper game. In reality, it’s too early to attribute the steadier growth to those efforts. Much of the recovery is more likely based in the public’s short attention span than the positive steps the industry has taken. The worst year, 2014, was driven by headlines questioning efficacy and not charging fraud. When publicity-hungry Dr. Paul O8t was angling for media mentions and the Annals of Internal Medicine brought their vitamins-are-worthless tag team act into the ring, the punch was felt in all corners. But the study-of-the-week shrug could make the industry increasingly immune to sideshows such as theirs.

So industry reform that takes fraud out of the equation—and a public ready to shrug o% sideline shots at efficacy, as surveys suggest—could bring the industry back to a place that’s less about crisis and more about con5dence in the business plan. Today, success in the supplement industry is less about reading tea leaves and hedging against external events and more about following trends—seeing where competitors are winning so you can win there too. There may not be agreement about a level playing field, but you can at least see the goal posts now. The smoke, most of it, has cleared.

But to win on that 5eld, you need a playbook. We recommend the NBJ Supplement Business Report.

In this year’s report, you will see growth across categories and channels. Look at the big numbers to get a sense of where the wind is blowing and then dip into sales ingredient-by-ingredient to see where the air is still or swirling.

We’ve also switched out the lens on company pro5les. We still feature the major players—but don’t expect a hierarchical list by sales. In a dynamic market where the right product, pitch and channel choreography can take companies and whole categories from bit-part to major player in a matter of months, we’ve decided the pro5les need to include the smaller companies that are carving out new kinds of success and de5ning markets in ways that even the biggest companies should be watching. Across a spectrum of 50 companies, expect to learn a lot about what’s working, what’s not working, and what could be fine-tuned to work even better.

With the NBJ Supplement Business Report on your desk, marketing and product development teams know where to coordinate in ways that grow sales and create new customers. With the report in the toolbox, executives can know where to deploy those teams and use industry connections to make sure the supply chain is anchored in the right places for the right products.

With growth steadier, and the regulatory tumult toned down, now is the time to make those solid decisions based on solid data.

So maybe the new normal is marked by fewer pendulum swings and growth that’s steadier and less spectacular. Less turbulence would be welcome, and industry reform focused on transparency and ingredient integrity could be calming the storms. We imagine many CEOs are welcoming calmer waters and something that’s more like a breeze and less like a gale.

Welcome to the new normal. We think you’re going to like it.


1.0 Executive Overview
1.1 Executive Summary:
The new (not-so) normal
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales, 2006-2021e
1.2 The lure of the third rail
$194 Billion U.S. Nutrition Industry by Channel in 2016
1.3 A carbon-cutting revolution
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
1.4 Sustaining sustainability
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
1.5 The branded advantage
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
1.6 Mission mania
$194 Billion U.S. Nutrition Industry by Product Category in 2016
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales by Product Categoryl, 2006-2021e
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
1.7 The millennial enigma
U.S. Nutrition Industry Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Supplement Sales vs Nutrition Industry Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Supplement Industry Sales, 2006-2021e
$41 Billion U.S. Supplement Industry by Product Category in 2016
1.8 RIBUS capitalizes on clean label movement
U.S. Supplement Industry Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Supplement Industry Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Supplement Industry Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Supplement Industry Market Share by Product Category, 2011-2021e
1.9 Off script
U.S. Supplement Industry Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
1.10 When GNC was burdened with a damning investigation, CEO Mike Archbold saw an opportunity to unite the entire industry
U.S. Supplement Industry Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
1.11 Q&A with Mark Pedersen
U.S. Supplement Industry Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
2.0 Vitamins
2.1 Intro: The case for nutrition
U.S. Vitamins vs Total Supplement Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
2.2 Vitamins may turbo boost chemo
U.S. Vitamin vs Total Supplement Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Vitamin Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
2.3 Vitamin vending machines are a thing
$12.8 Billion U.S. Vitamin Sales by Product Category in 2016
U.S. Vitamin Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
2.4 Can vitamin A quash colon cancer?
U.S. Vitamin Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021
U.S. Vitamin Market Share by Product Category, 2006-2021e
2.5 Vitamin A may save baby bowels
2.6 I wanna B3 forever young
U.S. Vitamin Product Category Sales Growth, 2010-2021e
2.7 B3 shows potential to help beat diabetes
$12.8 Billion U.S. Vitamin Sales by Channel in 2016
2.8 Low B12 may be linked to autism, dementia, schizophrenia
U.S. Vitamin Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
$5.9 Billion Multivitamin Sales by Channel in 2016
2.9 B12 more critical than previously believed
U.S. Multivitamin Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$512 Million Vitamin A Sales by Channel in 2016
2.10 Study: High-dose vitamin C saves lives (again)
U.S. Vitamin A Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$2.1 Billion Vitamin B Sales by Channel in 2016
2.11 Vitamin C’s promise in fighting cancer
2.12 C to see: vitamin linked to reduced cataract risk
2.13 Study: Vitamin D may prevent cancer
U.S. Vitamin B Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$1.1 Billion Vitamin C Sales by Channel in 2016
2.14 Vitamin D study shows benefit against colds and flu
U.S. Vitamin C Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
2.15 Vitamin D helps heart disease patients. Just don’t ask an M.D.
$886 Million Vitamin D Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Vitamin D Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$886 Million Other Vitamins Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Other Vitamins Sales and Growth, 2006-2012e
3.0 Minerals
3.1 Intro: Stories in the soil
U.S. Mineral vs. Total Supplement Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
3.2 Calcium pills may be as good as food
U.S. Mineral vs. Total Supplement Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Mineral Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$2.9 Billion U.S. Mineral Sales by Product Category in 2016
3.3 Study: Calcium does promote heart health among women
U.S. Mineral Sales by Product category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Mineral Sales Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Mineral Market Share by Product Category, 2006-2021e
$2.9 Billion U.S. Mineral Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Mineral Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
$1.2 Billion U.S. Calcium Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Calcium sales and Growth, 2006-2016e
3.4 Magnesium may protect against heart disease, stroke and diabetes
$842 Million U.S. Magnesium Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Magnesium Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$390 Million U.S. Iron Sales by Channel in 2016
$82 Million U.S. Selenium Sales by Channel in 2016
3.5 Zinc may help boost seniors’ immunity
U.S. Selenium Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
4.0 Herbs & Botanicals
4.1 Intro: Trading in tradition
4.2 Personalized herbalism
U.S. Herbs and Botanicals vs Total Supplement Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
4.3 The curcumin question
U.S. Herbs and Botanicals Sales vs. Total Supplement Sales, 2006-2021e
U.S. Herbs and Botanicals Sales vs. Total Supplement Sales., 2006-2021e
4.4 NDIs a no-go for synthetic botanicals
4.5 Grown in the sun, sold in the shade
$7.5 Billion U.S. Herbs and Botanicals Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Herbs and Botanicals Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
4.6 Gaia Herbs makes transparency a part of the corporate identity
U.S. Herbs and Botanicals Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
5.0 Sports Nutrition
5.1 Intro: Muscling into minivans
U.S. Sports Nutrition vs. Total Supplement Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
5.2 The Dr. Bro effect
U.S. Sports Nutrition vs. Total Supplement Sales, 2006-2021e
U.S. Sports Nutrition Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$5.7 Billion U.S. Sports Nutrition Sales by Product Category in 2016
U.S. Sports Nutrition Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
5.3 A race of results
U.S. Sports Nutrition Growth by Product Category, 2006-2021e
$5.7 Billion U.S. Sports Nutrition Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Sports Nutrition Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
5.4 Keep it clean
U.S. Sports Nutrition Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
5.5 The GNC effect
U.S. Sports Nutrition Drink Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Sports Nutrition Pills Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
5.6 The energy equation
U.S. Sports Nutrition Powders and Formulas Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Sports Nutrition Product Growth Rates by Category, 2006-2021e
5.7 Q&A with author Mark Johnson
6.0 Meal Supplements
6.1 Intro: Shaking things up
6.2 Sprouting up
U.S. Meal Supplement vs. Total Supplements Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Meal Supplements vs. Total Supplement Sales, 2006-2021e
6.3 Beyond the blender
U.S. Meal Supplement Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$4.8 Billion U.S. Meal Supplement Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Meal Supplements Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
6.4 Navigating fat fads
U.S. Meal Supplements Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
7.0 Specialty Supplements
7.1 Intro: Oil’s well, that ends well
7.2 Ganeden capitalizes on the probiotics boom with R&D, IP and integrity
U.S. Specialty Supplements vs. Total Supplements Sales Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Specialty Supplements vs. Total Supplement Sales, 2006-2021e
7.3 HumanN invests in the long game
7.4 Can you see us now?
U.S. Specialty Supplements Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$7.6 Billion U.S. Specialty Supplements Sales by Product Category in 2016
7.5 The detox paradox
U.S. Specialty Supplements Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
U.S. Specialty Supplements Sales by Product Category, 2017e-2021e
U.S. Specialty Supplement Growth by Product Category, 2006-2016
7.6 Could 2017 be the year of the prebiotic?
U.S. Specialty Supplement Growth by Product Category, 2017e-2021e
7.7 The dirty truth
U.S. Specialty Supplement Market Share by Product Category, 2006-2016
7.8 The enzyme issue
U.S. Specialty Supplements Market Share by Product Category, 2017e-2021e
7.9 Nano nano
$7.6 Billion U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales by Channel, 2006-2021e
U.S. Specialty Supplements Growth by Channel, 2006-2021e
$1.9 Billion U.S. Probiotic Sales by Channel in 2016
7.10 Selling cells
U.S. Probiotic Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
$1.2 BIllion U.S. Fish and Animal Oil Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Fish and Animal Oil Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
7.11 Sustainable seas
$186 Million U.S. Bee Product Sales by Channel in 2016
U.S. Bee Products Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
8.1 Sales Channels and Distribution
8.1.1 Intro: Shifting into gear
8.1.2 Border crossings
$41 Billion Supplement Industry by Channel in 2016
8.1.3 Women’s work?
U.S. Supplement Sales., Annual Growth, and Market Share by Channel, 2-14-2016
8.1.4 Direct to China
U.S. Supplements Natural and Specialty Channel Supplement Sales and Growth,
2006-2021e
8.1.5 Prepared for takeoff
U.S. Natural and Specialty Channel vs. Total Supplements Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Natural and Specialty Channel Supplements Sales by Product Category,
2006-2021e
U.S. Mass Market Channel Supplements Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Mass Market Channel vs. Total Supplements Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Mass Market Channel Supplement Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
8.1.6 Practitioner survey: building a strong help line
U.S. MLM/Network Marketing Channel Supplements Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. MLM/Network Marketing vs. Total Supplements Growth, 2006-2021e
8.1.7 The buck stops where?
U.S. MLM/Network Marketing Channel Supplements Sales by Product Category,
2006-2021e
U.S. Practitioner Channel Supplements Sales and Growty, 2006-2021e
8.1.8 Innovation and evolution
U.S. Practitioner Channel vs Total Supplements Growth, 2006-2021e
8.1.9 Small is beautiful
U.S. Practitioner Channel Supplements Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
8.1.10 Future shop
8.1.11 High touch or high tech?
U.S. Mail Order, DRTV. Radio Channel Supplements Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
8.1.12 Red state retail
U.S. Mail Order, DRTV. Radio Channel vs Total Supplement Growth, 2006-2021e
8.1.13 Innovation and evolution
U.S. Mail Order, DRTV. Radio Channel Supplements Sales by Product Category,
2006-2021e
8.1.14 Q&A Thriving together
8.2.1 Disruption equation
U.S. Internet Channel Supplements Sales and Growth, 2006-2021e
U.S. Internet Channel vs. All Other Channels Dietary Supplements Sales Growty,
2006-2021e
8.2.2 From Amazon to Alibaba
8.2.3 Not available in stores!
U.S. Internet Channel Supplements Sales by Product Category, 2006-2021e
8.2.4 Under the influencer
8.2.5 Caught between a rock and a hard place
9.0 Trust and Science
9.1 Matters of Trust
Supplement industry rated on trust against other institutions
9.2.1 Building Trust: Improve and promote regulations and guidelines
Supplement Users’ Thoughts on Quality and Regulation in the Supplement Industry
2016 Consumer Trust in Supplements Compared to Two Years Prior
9.2.2 Building Trust: Ensure claims and benefits are honest and substantiated
Supplement Users’ Thoughts on Product Claims
9.2.3 Building Trust: Promote ingredient transparency
Supplement Users’ Thoughts on Ingredient Transparency
9.2.4 Building trust: Partner with trusted sources
Trustworthy information sources
Likelihood of recommending supplements
9.2.5 Building Trust: Focus on consumer communication
Supplement industry communicates negative news
Supplement industry efforts to correct mistakes
9.2.6 Building Trust: Focus on the natural channel
Sales channels rated by trust
How trustworthy is the supplement industry?
9.2.7 Building Trust: Focus on consumers and quality, de-emphasize discounts and profits
Supplement industry’s degree of focus on profit
Supplement industry motivated by profit
9.3 Fake science news
9.4 Getting Comfortable in the Gray Area
9.5 Science sells, until it doesn’t
9.6 Medicine, supplements and science: opportunities and realities
10.0 Company Profiles
Top 50 U.S Dietary Supplement Companies, 2016
10.1 Arizona Nutritional Supplements
10.2 Carlyle Group (Nature’s Bounty, Rexall Sundown, Solgar)
10.3 doTERRA International, LLC
10.4 Glanbia (Optimum Nutrition, ThinkThin, Amazing Grass)
10.5 Olly Nutrition
10.6 Abbott Laboratories (Ensure, EAS)
10.7 Alticor (Amway, Nutrilite)
10.8 Atkins Nutritonals (Simply Good Foods)
10.9 Atrium (Pure Encapsulations, Douglas Laboratories, Genestra Brands)
10.10 Basic Research/Zoller Labs (Zantrex, Relacore, Leptopril, etc.)
10.11 Bausch & Lomb (Zantrex, Relacore, Leptopril, etc.)
10.12 Bayer (One A Day, Flintstones, Phillips’)
10.13 Bluebonnet Nutrition Corp
10.14 Church & Dwight (Vitafusion, L’il Critters, PB8, Accuflora)
10.15 DanoneWave (Vega)
10.16 DSM (i-Health, Culturelle)
10.17 Forever Living
10.18 Gaia Herbs
10.19 Ganeden Inc.
10.20 GNC (contract manufacturing, General Nutrition Center Inc.)
10.21 Helen of Troy/Healthy Directions (Doctor’s Preferred)
10.22 Herbalife International
10.23 International Vitamin Corporation (IVC, Perrigo)
10.24 Iovate (Hydroxycut, MuscleTech)
10.25 Jarrow Formulas
10.26 Kikkoman (Country Life, Allergy Research Group)
10.27 Kroger Corporation (VitaCost.com)
10.28 Liberty Interactive (Bodybuilding.com)
10.29 Life Extension
10.30 Metagenics
10.31 Natural Alternatives
10.32 Natural Factors Nutritional Products
10.33 Natural Organics (Nature’s Plus)
10.34 NexGen Pharma (Vitamer, VitaCeutical Labs)
10.35 Nordic Naturals
10.36 NOW Foods
10.37 Nu Skin Enterprises (Pharmanex)
10.38 Pfizer (Centrum, Alacer)
10.39 Pharmavite (Nature Made, Innate Response, MegaFood)
10.40 Procter & Gamble (Metamucil, New Chapter)
10.41 Reckitt Benckiser (Schiff)
10.42 Schwabe NA (Nature’s Way, Enzymatic Therapy, Integrative Therapeutics, Wellesse)
10.43 Shaklee (Company Profile)
10.44 SmartyPants Vitamins
10.45 Standard Process
10.46 Swanson Health
10.47 Twinlab Consolidated Holdings Inc. (Reservage, New Vitality)
10.48 Wellnext (Natural Vitality, Sedona Pro, Rainbow Light)
11.0 Acknowledgements and Definitions
11.1 Acknowledgements
11.2 Research Methodology
11.3 Disclaimer
11.4 Copyright
11.5 Definitions
11.6 Product Categories
11.7 Dietary Supplements
11.8 Food and Beverage
11.9 Natural & Organic Personal Care
11.10 Other Household Products
11.11 Sales Channels

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