Global Oil Refining Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2018 - 2023)
The demand for energy is growing in the emerging countries. These countries are also heavily dependent on oil. Therefore, the growing energy demand in emerging countries is expected to drive the market, while the global trend towards increased natural gas and renewable energy consumption is expected to restrain the market during the forecast period.
Growing Oil Demand and Technologically Advancements to Drive the Market
Energy demand in emerging countries, like India and China is growing at a substantial rate owing to industrialization, growing population, and urbanization. But these countries do not have enough infrastructures for distribution of gas and generating renewable energy to meet the growing demands. Therefore emerging countries are expected to remain heavily dependent on oil to meet the demands. Therefore growing demand, particularly in emerging countries, is expected to drive the oil demand, in turn driving the refining market. The modern refineries built are highly efficient and are more equipped in producing the fuel that meets the strict government regulations. Therefore, the technological advancements are expected to help increase the profit margins for the refinery operators. Many refinery operators, particularly in Europe and the US, are closing down the refinery plants due to low-profit margins. Therefore, the increased profit margins due to technological advancements are expected to support the growth of the market.
Low Margin and Demand is Expected to Restrain the European Market
Europe is moving towards gas and renewable energy to meet the energy needs, which is constraining the oil demand in the region. The regulation put in place by European Union, and national governments are expected to reduce the refined oil demand in the region further. For example, the new cap will be put in action after 2020 on the sulfur content of marine fuel, which is expected to reduce the demand for oil in the marine industry. With low oil demands, many refineries in the region are unable to find buyers. The other major problem faced by the European oil refineries is that they have witnessed a consistent drop in profit margin since 1990, and as a result, the margin of European refineries is significantly lower than the global average. Lower margins and inability to find the buyers are forcing the refineries operators to shut down the plants. It is estimated that more refinery plants are expected to shut down during the forecast period, in turn restraining the market during the forecast period.
Nigeria to Register Significant Growth During the Forecast Period
Nigeria has a nameplate capacity of 445,000 bpd, largest in West Africa and fourth largest in Africa. But the refining facilities are very old; suffer from lack of maintenance and inconsistent feedstock. As a result, country’s 80% of the downstream product requirement is fulfilled by the imports. The government of Nigeria plans to process all the domestic refined product consumption locally by 2019.In order to improve the downstream industry production, and reduce the dependence on imports, Nigeria's Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) and state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) have opened their door to private international and local investors. The result is, Dangote group is building the largest oil refinery with the nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd of oil, which is not only expected to meet Nigeria’s consumption but also, allows the country to become an exporter of the refined products. The Dangote oil refinery is expected to start the production by 2019. Apart from that, in May 2017, Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Ministry of State, Petroleum Resources, Nigeria announced that Nigerian Government has reached an agreement with Agip to build a new refinery of 150,000 bpd capacity. Owing to increased investments to build new infrastructures, Nigeria is expected to be the fastest growing market for the downstream industry in the region.
Key Developments in the Market