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In-store Bakeries - US - June 2017

In-store Bakeries - US - June 2017

"Sales at in-store bakeries continue to rise. Even as consumers indicate they are seeking healthier foods, they are clearly open to the occasional indulgence, and in-store bakeries are poised to capitalize on consumer interest in higher-quality baked goods that the consumers may feel uncomfortable, unwilling, or unskilled enough to make themselves."

- Billy Roberts, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This Report discusses the following key topics:

In-store bakery sales growth expected to continue
Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
Need to evolve appeal beyond larger households


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 2: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
The opportunities
Figure 3: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
Figure 4: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
Figure 5: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
What it means
THE MARKET
What You Need to Know
Continuing sales increases expected for the category
Strong growth in dessert sales for in-store bakeries
Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
Declining number of households with children
Market Size and Forecast
In-store bakeries projected to see continued sales increases
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
Breakfast emerging as in-store bakery occasion
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Desserts register strong sales growth over last two years
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices in thousands, 2015 and 2017, % change from 2015 in parentheses
Market Perspective
Prepared cakes/pies see rising sales but fall short in terms of fresh
Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015
Competition from stand-alone bakeries
Figure 11: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Market Factors
Consumer spending on food trending higher
Figure 12: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2003-January 2017
Households with children more likely to turn to ISB offerings
Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Hispanic consumers over index in the use of in-store bakeries
Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
IN-STORE BAKERIES, US - JUNE 2017
KEY PLAYERS
What You Need to Know
Price matters but not as strongly as some other attributes
Health attributes may deter consumers from more-indulgent options
Free-from could communicate natural
What’s Working?
Price matters
Figure 15: Notable in-store bakery dessert launches, 2017
What’s Struggling?
Health, a possible deterrent in certain segments
Figure 16: True Goodness by Meijer Organic Whole Grain Hot Dog Buns, 2017
What’s Next?
Free-from claims could resonate
Flavor affording opportunity
Figure 17: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
Figure 18: Walmart Marketside Pepperoni Cheese Bread, 2017
THE CONSUMER
What You Need to Know
Younger generations turning to in-store bakeries
Strong interest in freshness
Naturally good
Variety resonating with younger consumers
Occasional opportunities
Consumers seeking organic options
Diverse options for an increasingly diverse population
In-store bakery usage chiefly in supermarkets
ISB-loyal consumers and price
Consumers say they value freshness even over price
Purchase Frequency
Consumption of baked goods
Figure 19: Purchase frequency, April 2017
Opportunities in increasing frequency
Figure 20: Purchase frequency, by age, April 2017
Evolving beyond larger households
Figure 21: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
Figure 22: Purchase frequency, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
Distinct opportunities among younger Hispanic consumers
Figure 23: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Purchase Factors
Fresh factors most strongly
Figure 24: Purchase factors, April 2017
Freshness and variety appeal to frequent shoppers
Figure 25: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
Factors to increase purchase
Figure 26: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, April 2017
Natural Factors
Nutrients resonate with younger consumers
Figure 27: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
Younger, higher-income consumers factoring nutrients and lack of allergens
Figure 28: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
Figure 29: Purchase factors, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
Older Hispanic consumers strongly likely to consider health
Figure 30: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Flavor Factors
Fresh resonates most strongly with youngest consumers
Figure 31: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
Variety appeals to younger households with higher income levels
Figure 32: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
Flavor’s strong appeal to Hispanic Millennials
Figure 33: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Usage
Potential in special occasions
Figure 34: Usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Hispanics more likely to use for special occasions
Figure 35: Usage of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Increasing Purchase
Health concerns offset by portioning
Figure 36: Increasing purchase, April 2017
Organic claims resonate strongly with younger generations
Figure 37: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
Organic options may resonate with consumers seeking healthy treats
Figure 38: Increasing purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
Hispanic Millennial attitudes reflect Millennials’ overall
Figure 39: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Flavor Improvements
In-store bakeries can assist during time-stressed holiday seasons
Figure 40: Increasing purchase, April 2017
Time savings from in-store bakeries
Figure 41: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
Diverse options could reach a diverse audience
Figure 42: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Maximizing in-store bakery potential
Figure 43: TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
Purchase Location
Supermarket ISBs resonating more so than other retailers’
Figure 44: Purchase location, April 2017
Unexplored potential for mass merchandisers’ and natural stores’ in-store bakeries
Figure 45: Purchase location, April 2017
In-store bakery may create a sense of consumer loyalty
Figure 46: Purchase location, by repertoire of usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Brands and Baked
Quality factors strongly among bakery items
Figure 47: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Baked goods as reassurance
Figure 48: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
Hispanic Millennial moms appear to be gatekeepers
Figure 49: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Frequent ISB consumers appear less impacted by price
Figure 50: Purchase frequency, by opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Quality of Baked Goods
Fresh appears more impactful even than price
Figure 51: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by gender and age, April 2017
Fresh appreciation among Hispanic non-Millennials, in particular
Figure 52: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Impact of In-store Competition
Bakery expertise could be a draw
Figure 53: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by age, April 2017
Leveraging expertise via social media and apps
Figure 54: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
APPENDIX
Data Sources and Abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations
The Market
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
The Consumer
Figure 66: Bread types eaten, by gender, 2016
Figure 67: Bread types eaten, by age, 2016
Figure 68: Bread types eaten, by race, 2016
Figure 69: Bread types eaten, by Hispanic origin, 2016
Figure 70: Bread types eaten, by household income, 2016
Figure 71: Bread types eaten, by education level, 2016
Figure 72: Bread types eaten, by presence of children in the household, 2016
Figure 73: Bread types eaten, by region, 2016
TURF Analysis Methodology
Methodology
Figure 74: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, March 2017
Figure 75: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
The Mintel fan chart

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