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Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners - US - May 2015

Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners - US - May 2015

The sugar and alternative sweeteners category reached almost $5 billion in 2014, representing growth of only 3% from 2009-14. Sugar’s negative impact on health has impaired growth; however, honey represents the category sweet spot and is indicative of the future natural direction of the market. At the same time consumers are demanding more natural sweeteners, they remain confused about which sweeteners truly are natural and the differences between types. This confusion creates opportunity for manufacturers to be proactive with this type of information, especially as some consumers are actively researching sweeteners before they make a purchase.

This report looks at the following issues:

Negative health perceptions impacting sales
Difficult to identify natural sugar substitutes
Sweetener types causing consumer confusion


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment, 2009- 14
Figure 2: Sugar substitutes considered natural, by gender, February 2015
Figure 3: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, February 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by generation, February 2015
Figure 5: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by Hispanic origin, February 2015
Figure 6: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, February 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Honey is the category sweet spot
Opportunity for further private label growth
Health concerns, lack of product information hurting sales
Market size and forecast
Sugar and sweetener sales to remain relatively stable
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Market breakdown
Sugar fueling majority of category declines
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment share, 2014
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment, 2009- 14
Private label options can help retailers grow sales
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
Natural sales driven by products with agave, stevia
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of selected products* with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, r
olling 52 weeks ending 2/24/13 and 2/22/15
Market factors
Sugar and honey production, prices on the rise
Figure 14: US honey production and imports, 2001-14
Impact on consumer health
Figure 15: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
Sugar substitutes’ household usage on the decline
Figure 16: Use of sugar and sugar substitutes/artificial sweeteners, October 2009 – December 2014
Figure 17: Use of sugar and sugar substitutes/artificial sweeteners, November 2013 – December 2014
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Nearly all companies experience sales declines
Natural, low-calorie positioning resonates with consumers
Additional natural alternatives go mainstream
Manufacturer sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners
Category leaders struggle to grow sales
Figure 18: MULO sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Skinny, natural resonating with consumers
Figure 19: MULO sales of Stevia in the Raw, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 20: MULO sales of Truvia, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 21: MULO sales of other sugar substitutes, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Honey sees sweet success
Figure 22: MULO sales of Aunt Sue Honey, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 23: MULO sales of Busy Bee Honey, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
What’s struggling?
Several sugar substitutes face declines
Figure 24: MULO sales of Sweet’N Low, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 25: MULO sales of Equal, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Sugar declines across the board
Figure 26: MULO sales of C&H sugar, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 27: MULO sales of private label sugar, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Focus on tradition not enough to boost syrup sales
Figure 28: MULO sales of Karo, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
Figure 29: MULO sales of Mrs. Butterworth’s, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
What’s next?
More natural alternatives go mainstream
Raw is the new natural?
Figure 30: Percentage of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners product launches with a raw claim, 2010-14
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Sugar use not slowing
More natural sweeteners needed
Households with children shifting away from sugar substitutes
Confusion about sweetener types, need for more product information
Sugar types used
Despite health concerns, sugar is top sweetener
Figure 31: Sugar types used in past month, by generation, February 2015
Figure 32: Sugar types used in past month, by generation, February 2015
Sugar substitutes used or seen
Baseline awareness of newer sugar substitutes
Figure 33: Sugar substitutes used or seen in past month, February 2015
Figure 34: Sugar substitutes used or seen in past month, Any use, by generation, February 2015
Sugar substitutes considered natural
Agave considered most natural
Figure 35: Sugar substitutes considered natural, by gender, February 2015
Sweetened products
Consumers paying more attention to food and beverages sugar content
Figure 36: Attention paid to sugar/sweeteners as an ingredient, February 2015
Figure 37: Pepsi True, TV ad, November 2014
Older generations less likely to look at sugar content
Figure 38: Attention paid to sugar/sweetener as an ingredient, select products, by generation, February 2015
Purchase factors
Calorie content most important for sugar substitute purchases
Figure 39: Factors when purchasing sugar/sugar substitutes, February 2015
Millennials look for organic claims, added nutrition
Figure 40: Select factors when purchasing sugar substitutes, by Millennials, February 2015
Behaviors related to sugar and sugar substitutes
Households with children limiting sugar substitute use
Figure 41: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Households with children see value in natural positioning
Figure 42: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 43: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by generation, February 2015
Attitudes toward sugar and sugar substitutes
Consumer confusion, lack of information about sweeteners
Figure 44: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by Hispanic origin, February 2015
Universal health concerns impacting perceptions
Figure 45: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by generations, February 2015
Packaging color nearly as influential as brand
Figure 46: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Consumer segmentation
Figure 47: Sugar and alternative sweetener clusters, February, 2015
Group one: Super Sweet
Group two: Naturally Sweet
Group three: Simply Sweet
Cluster methodology
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations and terms
Appendix – Market
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 49: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrups and molasses, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 54: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
Figure 55: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Figure 56: US supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-14
Figure 57: US sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
Figure 58: Natural supermarket sales of candy and individual snacks with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current
prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 59: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices,
rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 60: Natural supermarket sales of cold cereals with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks
ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 61: Natural supermarket sales of energy bars and gels with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling
52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 62: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52
weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 63: Natural supermarket sales of RTD tea and coffee, with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling
52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 64: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated juices and functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener,
at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 65: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current
prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated juices and functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener,
at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
Appendix – Key players
Figure 67: MULO sales of sugar, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 68: MULO sales of syrups and molasses, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 69: MULO sales of sugar substitutes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 70: MULO sales of honey, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

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