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The Restaurant Decision-making Process - US - July 2015

The Restaurant Decision-making Process - US - July 2015

“Restaurants have many operational and menu elements to balance to service the greatest number of consumers. While operators may not be able to please all the people all the time, they can look at the demographics that spend the most and evaluate what they are looking for. In some cases, it’s healthy menus, and in other cases, it is indulgent desserts. Some consumers care about long wait times. If those who most value short wait times are big-spending demographics, it’s time to address the issue.”

– Julia Gallo-Torres, Sr. Food and Drink/Foodservice Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

How can restaurants balance health with indulgence on the menu?
What can be done to minimize the wait-time obstacle, especially for casual and fine dining?
How can restaurants effectively respond to the growing Hispanic population?


SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices,
2009-19
Market drivers
Competitive context
The consumer
Figure 2: Foodservice expenditures in the past 30 days, by gender, December 2014
Figure 3: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents) Use of drive-thru
for burger and chicken, by gender, April 2015
Figure 4: What matters with menus, by household income, April 2015
Figure 5: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 6: What matters with menus, by presence of children in household, April 2015
Figure 7: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can restaurants balance health with indulgence on the menu?
The issues
The implications
What can be done to minimize the wait-time obstacle, especially for casual and fine dining?
The issues
The implications
How can restaurants effectively respond to the growing Hispanic population?
The issues
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
Trend: The Power of One
Trend: Slow it All Down
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
FSRs still lead limited service in market share
Figure 8: Total market share of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2014
Figure 9: Total US sales of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Sales and forecast of US full service restaurant sales
Expanding sales reflect a stronger economy
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Sales and forecast of US limited service restaurant sales
Sales expand at a rate of 5% and beyond
Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of limited service eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
Figure 13: Total US retail and forecast of limited service eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Sales and forecast of other US limited service restaurant sales
Menu build-outs yield expanded sales
Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of *other limited service, at current prices, 2009-19
Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
Figure 15: Total US retail and forecast of *other limited service, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service and limited service restaurants at current prices,
2009-19
Fan chart forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Jobs continue to rebound
Figure 17: Unemployment rate and underemployment, January 2007-April 2015
Disposable income continues to rise slightly
Figure 18: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-March 2015
Wages have yet to rebound
Figure 19: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
Consumer confidence remains shaky, but has improved year-over-year
Figure 20: Consumer confidence index, January 2009-April 2015
Population groups support targeting Millennials and Gen X
Figure 21: US population, by generation share, 2015*
Figure 22: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013*
Restaurant Performance Index shows solid expansion
Figure 23: National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index, 2004-15
Minimum wage wars
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Grocery and convenience stores up their game for dining-out dollars
Figure 24: Barriers to restaurant usage, by select demographics of those who chose “There are better dinner
specials at the grocery store,” April 2015
Meal services bring the ingredients and recipe to the door
Figure 25: Where and how consumers order limited service restaurant food, by delivery, April 2015
Figure 26: Where and how consumers order full service restaurant food, by delivery, April 2015
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Key points
Easy interactive ordering/paying fills need for speed
Entertainment tie-ins help restaurants gain exposure
Contests create vibe
MENU ANALYSIS
Key points
Exclusive menu items appeal to consumers
Figure 27: Top 10 menu item claims at limited service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
Limited service “signature” and “original” menu examples
Top full service menu claims
Figure 28: Top 10 menu item claims at full service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
Full service “signature,” “house,” and “homemade” menu examples
Healthy menu section and items appeal to customers
Nutritional claims at limited service restaurants
Figure 29: Top 10 nutritional claims at limited service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
Limited service “gluten-free” and “natural” menu examples
Nutritional claims at FSRs
Figure 30: Top 10 nutritional claims at full service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
Full service “gluten-free,” and “natural” examples
CONSUMER DATA – OVERVIEW
Key points
Figure 31: Restaurant expenditures, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 32: Where and how consumers eat restaurant food (limited service), April 2015
Figure 33: Where and how consumers eat restaurant food (full service), April 2015
Quick seating, fair prices, good service, and a healthy food section appeal to guests
Figure 34: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, April 2015
Figure 35: What matters with menus, April 2015
Figure 36: Choosing a restaurant based on occasion, April 2015
Recommendations bring in the most customers; high price and poor service keep them out
Figure 37: Drivers for new restaurant trial, April 2015
Figure 38: Barriers to restaurant usage, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY GENDER AND AGE
Key points
Figure 39: Restaurant expenditures, by gender and age, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 40: Limited service restaurant use, by gender and age, April 2015
Figure 41: Full service restaurant use, by gender and age, April 2015
Figure 42: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by
demographics, April 2015
Women most care about quick seating and a healthy menu section; older men care about quietness for specialoccasion
dining
Figure 43: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by demographics, April 2015
Figure 44: What matters with menus, by gender and age, April 2015
Figure 45: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by gender and age, April 2015
Recommendations, good price, and positive experience go a long way in driving traffic to the restaurant,
especially for women
Figure 46: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by gender and age, April 2015
Figure 47: Barriers to restaurant usage, by demographics, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY GENERATION
Key points
Figure 48: Limited service restaurant use, by generations, April 2015
Figure 49: Full service restaurant use, by generations, April 2015
Location and menu healthy food sections matter less to Millennials
Figure 50: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by generations, April 2015
Figure 51: What matters with menus, by generations, April 2015
Figure 52: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by generations, April 2015
Baby Boomers are more promotion and price driven than Millennials
Figure 53: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by generations, April 2015
Figure 54: Barriers to restaurant usage, by generations, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY INCOME
Key points
Figure 55: Limited service restaurant use, by annual household income, April 2015
Figure 56: Full service restaurant use, by annual household income, April 2015
Figure 57: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by household
income, April 2015
To draw all incomes, restaurants must have price solutions for low-income earners and quality offerings for highincome
earners
Figure 58: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by household income, April 2015
Figure 59: What matters with menus, by household income, April 2015
Figure 60: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by household income, April 2015
Adventurous menus draw upper income earners; value draws low income earners
Figure 61: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by household income, April 2015
Figure 62: Barriers to restaurant usage, by household income, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY RACE AND HISPANICS
Key points
Figure 63: Median annual household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Figure 64: Restaurant expenditures, by race and hispanic origin, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 65: Limited service restaurant use, by race and hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 66: Full service restaurant use, by race and hispanic origin, April 2015
Daily specials matter to Hispanics, not so much to Whites; Asians want to see pictures of the food on the menu .. 88
Figure 67: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 68: What matters with menus, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 69: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 70: Choosing a restaurant based on every day, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Asians are value conscious; Blacks look for interesting food and drink specials
Figure 71: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 72: Barriers to restaurant usage, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY PARENTS
Key points
Figure 73: Restaurant expenditures, by presence of children, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 74: Limited service restaurant use, by parents, April 2015
Figure 75: Full service restaurant use, by parents, April 2015
Figure 76: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by parental
status, April 2015
Parents with children don’t expect to be seated quickly, but they do want a bar area to compensate for the wait .. 97
Figure 77: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by parental status, April 2015
Figure 78: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by presence of children in household,
April 2015
Figure 79: What matters with menus, by parental status, April 2015
Figure 80: What matters with menus, by presence of children in household, April 2015
Figure 81: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by presence of children in household, April 2015 . 100
Fathers try restaurants with a good online presence and that conduct special events
Figure 82: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by parental status, April 2015
Figure 83: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by presence of children in household, April 2015
Figure 84: Barriers to restaurant usage, by parental status, April 2015
Figure 85: Barriers to restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, April 2015
CONSUMER DATA – BY REGION AND AREA
Key points
Figure 86: Restaurant expenditures, by region, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 87: Limited service restaurant use, by region, April 2015
Figure 88: Full service restaurant use, by region, April 2015
Figure 89: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by region,
April 2015
Figure 90: Limited service restaurant use, by area, April 2015
Figure 91: Full service restaurant use, by area, April 2015
Figure 92: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by area,
April 2015
Bar areas are important to Westerners and urban dwellers; Midwesterners and suburban dwellers most prize a
quiet, leisurely dinner
Figure 93: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by region, April 2015
Figure 94: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by area, April 2015
Figure 95: What matters with menus, by region, April 2015
Figure 96: What matters with menus, by area, April 2015
Figure 97: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by region, April 2015
Figure 98: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by area, April 2015
Midwesterners respond best to price promotions; Northeasterners and those in urban areas are least concerned
with price and service
Figure 99: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by region, April 2015
Figure 100: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by area, April 2015
Figure 101: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
Figure 102: Barriers to restaurant usage, by area, April 2015
KEY DRIVER ANALYSIS
Methodology
Dining-out correlations to those who choose restaurants they learned about via social media or TV
shows
Special occasion
Everyday
Figure 103: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions, April 2015
Figure 104: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dinning, April 2015
Dining-out correlations to those who choose restaurants they have never tried before
Special occasion
Everyday
Figure 105: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions, April 2015
Figure 106: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dinning, April 2015
APPENDIX – KEY DRIVER ANALYSIS
Figure 107: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions based on social or television media – key
driver output, April 2015
Figure 108: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dining based on social or television media – key
driver output, April 2015
Figure 109: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant never tried before for special occasions – key driver output,
April 2015
Figure 110: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant never tried before for everyday dining – key driver output, April
2015
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
US METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER RESEARCH
Primary Data Analysis
Secondary Data Analysis
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Social Media Research
TRADE RESEARCH
STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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