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Restaurant Decision Making Process - US - December 2017

Restaurant Decision Making Process - US - December 2017

"As a whole, the restaurant industry continues to grow with total revenues reaching approximately $569 billion in 2017. However, many restaurants face an uncertain future due to shifting consumer dining preferences and an overabundance of restaurants in the market. It’s harder than ever for individual restaurants to stand out in the market but restaurants that provide a unique memorable experience will garner consumer attention."

- Caleb Bryant, Senior Foodservice Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

Venues outside traditional restaurants are trending
Restaurants can’t be all things to all consumers


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Venues outside traditional restaurants are trending
Figure 1: Restaurant competitor utilization, October 2017
Restaurants can’t be all things to all consumers
Figure 2: Restaurant attitudes, October 2017
The opportunities
The restaurant industry continues to grow
Figure 3: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, limited service restaurants, and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
Opportunity to expand beyond traditional associations
Figure 4: FSR vs LSR attitudes, October 2017
Price, recommendations, and location drive new restaurant trial
Figure 5: Restaurant visitation motivators, October 2017
What it means
THE MARKET
What You Need to Know
Market as a whole continues to grow
FSRs fall behind LSRs
Economic conditions are ideal for restaurants
Market Size and Forecast
Restaurant sales grow steadily
Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, limited service restaurants, and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, limited service restaurants, and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
Growth of LSRs outpacing that of FSRs
Figure 8: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 12: Total revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2015-22
Market Perspective
Evolving foodservice landscape
Retailers turn into foodservice destinations
C-stores experience strong foodservice sales growth
Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of c-store foodservice sales, at current prices, 2011-21
Meal kits may bridge the gap between retail and foodservice
Market Factors
Consumers have rosy economic outlook
Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-September 2017
Figure 15: Opinion on current financial situation, Q2-Q4 2017
HHs with children decline
Figure 16: Percentage of total households, by presence of related children, 2006-16
Consumers are spending more at restaurants while on vacation
Figure 17: Expenditures on US tourism-related goods and services, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Foodies shape the future of foodservice
Figure 18: Foodie attitudes, October 2017
Figure 19: Food attitudes, Spring 2013-17
Figure 20: Foodie dining habits, June 2017
KEY PLAYERS
What You Need to Know
Convenience is front and center at restaurants
Overexpansion plagues the market
What’s Working?
“Fast food” redefined
What’s Struggling?
Too many choices not enough time or money
What’s Next?
Ties between social media and restaurants grow stronger
Hotels up their dining programs
Food halls offer hope to new chefs entering the crowded market
THE CONSUMER
What You Need to Know
Word of mouth drives most new restaurant trials
Consumers visit a variety of nonrestaurants for meals
Strong associations exist between FSRs and LSRs
Restaurant Visitation
Chain restaurants dominate the foodservice landscape
Figure 21: Restaurant visitation, October 2017
Restaurant visitation largely based on age, income
Figure 22: Restaurant visitation, by age and HH income, October 2017
Casual dining chains need to attract multicultural consumers
Figure 23: Restaurant visitation, by race/ethnicity, October 2017
Feeding the family
Figure 24: Restaurant visitation, by parents and age, October 2017
Figure 25: Restaurant visitation, by age of child/children, October 2017
QSRs appeal to calorie carefree consumers
Figure 26: Restaurant visitation, by restaurant consumer types, October 2017
Foodies are fans of all restaurant types
Figure 27: Restaurant visitation, by foodie attitudes, October 2017
Consumers generally visit a few restaurant types
Figure 28: Repertoire analysis – restaurant visitation, October 2017
Figure 29: Repertoire analysis – restaurant visitation, five or more restaurant types, by demographics, October 2017
KDAs
Methodology
Taste and consistency are important across segments
Figure 30: Key drivers of satisfaction with different restaurants, October 2017
Restaurant Visitation Motivators
Word of mouth is key for new restaurants
Figure 31: Restaurant visitation motivators, October 2017
Younger women motivated by online reviews
Figure 32: Restaurant visitation motivators, by age and gender, October 2017
Ambiance is part of the dining experience for foodies
Figure 33: Restaurant visitation motivators, by foodie attitudes, October 2017
Large overlap between food halls and fine dining
Figure 34: Restaurant visitation motivators, by restaurant type visitors, October 2017
Restaurant Competitors
Foodservice grows in nontraditional channels
Figure 35: Restaurant competitor utilization, October 2017
iGen/Millennials get food from many sources
Figure 36: Restaurant competitor utilization, by generations, October 2017
Hispanics are key consumers for foodservice in retail concepts
Figure 37: Restaurant competitor utilization, by Hispanic origin, October 2017
Restaurant competitors also appeal to foodies
Figure 38: Restaurant competitor utilization, by foodie attitudes, October 2017
Restaurant Attitudes
Balancing the wants and needs of consumers
Figure 39: Restaurant attitudes, October 2017
Figure 40: Restaurant attitudes, by foodie attitudes, October 2017
Nonfoodies want the basics
Demographic profiles: restaurant consumer types
Restaurant hobbyists
Figure 41: Restaurant hobbyists demographic profile, October 2017
Special occasion only diners
Figure 42: Special occasion only diners demographic profile, October 2017
Calorie carefree
Figure 43: Calorie carefree consumers demographic profile, October 2017
Deal seekers
Figure 44: Deal seekers demographic profile, October 2017
Just play the hits
Figure 45: Just play the hits consumers demographic profile, October 2017
Organic enthusiasts
Figure 46: Organic enthusiasts demographic profile, October 2017
FSR vs. LSR Attitudes
The strengths and weaknesses of FSRs and LSRs
Figure 47: FSR vs LSR attitudes, October 2017
APPENDIX
Data Sources and Abbreviations
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
The Market
Figure 48: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecast for limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
The Consumer
Figure 51: Households, by presence of related children, 2006-16
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Primary Data Analysis
Sampling
Secondary Data Analysis
Simmons National Consumer Studies
Qualitative Research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting
The Mintel fan chart

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