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Residential Care for the Elderly - UK - October 2015

Residential Care for the Elderly - UK - October 2015

“There appears to be a three‑tier system in residential care in the UK that looks set to become a two‑tier system in the near future. The first tier ‘luxury market’ care homes are marketed like ‘five-star’ hotels and are targeting self-funding residents ahead of those funded by local authorities.”

– Lewis Cone, B2B Analyst

This report will explore the following key issues regarding the residential care industry in the UK:

What are the key determinants driving the residential care industry?
Was the market affected by the financial crisis and how has it recovered since? Has there been any structural changes as a consequence?
How has the government influenced and shaped the development of care homes?
What are the key issues the industry needs to address to fully benefit from any favourable market conditions and future trends?
Has the industry reacted to the care home scandals?
What does the future hold for the UK's residential care industry


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market size
Figure 1: UK residential care market, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 2: UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes and number of care home places,
2011-15 (Homes in units and places in 000s)
Market trends
Care home fees continue to be squeezed
Ageing population continues to offer growth potential
Occupancy rates in residential care homes rise above nursing homes
Demand for specialist care homes increases due to rise in illnesses that require greater and specific care
requirements
The rise of self-funders in the traditional care home market may be somewhat derailed by fee information
becoming public
Regional analysis
Figure 3: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14
(Number of people)
Market factors
Demographic trends will provide constant demand for residential care services
Staff cost differentials apparent despite restrictive financial situation in the industry
Continued local government budgetary restrictions will place a burden on service provision
Care home property market offers opportunities, but also challenges
Companies
Forecast
The value of the UK resident care for the elderly market is forecast to increase by a total of 6% by 2020
Figure 4: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market, by type of purchaser,
2016-20 (£ million)
Sheltered housing, including extra care housing, expected to become more popular over the next five years
Figure 5: Forecast UK sheltered housing units, 2016-20 (000)
What we think
KEY INSIGHTS
What has been the impact of public spending cuts on care home fees and industry activity?
Can supported housing, including housing with extra care, offer a suitable alternative to
traditional care homes?
Will the industry’s workforce cope with future care demands?
INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
Market positioning
Figure 6: Elderly (65+) population in the UK, by country, 1995, 2005 and 2014 (000 people)
Figure 7: Elderly population in the UK, 1995, 2005 and 2014 (000 people)
UK ECONOMY
Key points
Overview
Figure 8: UK GDP, 2004-15 (% quarterly growth and gdp in £ billion)
Figure 9: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008 (Number of quarters and GDP as % of
pre-downturn peak)
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Business investment
Figure 10: UK GFCF 2003-15 (£ million)
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS
Key points
Public sector expenditure restrictions
Demographics and social trends
Economic
Employment trends
Supported housing
Legislation
Care Standards Act
Regulation and Inspection Bill (Wales)
The Care Act 2014 and Better Care Fund
CQC and market oversight
Care Certificate
Pensions Act
The Carers’ Strategy
Other legislation
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
Key points
Market size
Figure 11: The UK residential care market, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 12: The UK residential care market graph, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 13: The UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes, 2011-15 (Units)
Figure 14: The UK residential care market graph, by number of registered care homes, 2011-15 (Units)
Figure 15: The UK residential care market, by number of registered places, 2011-15 (000)
Figure 16: Average number of places, revenue per care home and revenue per place, UK, 2011-15 (Average
number of places, revenue in £000)
Figure 17: Revenue per care home and per place, UK, 2011-15 (Revenue per place in £ and per care home
in £000)
Market segmentation
Overview
Figure 18: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of accommodation, 2011-15 (Number of
homes, sheltered housing in 000 units)
Figure 19: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 20: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2011 and 2015 (£ million)
Figure 21: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 22: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider graph, 2011-15 (£ million)
Local authority commissioned care
Figure 23: Number of local authority funded adults in care homes, by type of provider, 2010-14 (Number of
residents)
Figure 24: Number of local authority-funded adults in care homes, by independent provider, 2010-14
(Number of residents)
Figure 25: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by
provider and client type, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 26: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by
provider and client type, 2011-15 (£ million)
Older people (65+)
Figure 27: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+), by
service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 28: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+)
graph, by service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
Adults aged 18-64
Figure 29: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by
service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
Figure 30: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by
care need type, 2011-15 (£ million)
NHS care
Figure 31: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care, by provider type, 2011-15 (£
million)
Figure 32: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care graph, by provider type,
2011-15 (£ million)
Private care purchasers
Figure 33: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care, 2011-15 (£ million and % market share)
Figure 34: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care graph, 2011-15 (£ million)
Sheltered housing
Figure 35: The development of sheltered housing in the UK, 2011-15 (000 units and % change)
Figure 36: The development of sheltered housing in the UK graph, 2011-15 (000 units)
Figure 37: Segmentation of sheltered housing in the UK, by sector and region, 2015 (000 units)
Extra care housing
Figure 38: Segmentation of extra care housing in england, by purchasing type and region, 2015 (Units)
Figure 39: Segmentation of extra care housing in England graph, by purchasing type and region, 2015
(Units)
Market trends
Care home fees continue to be squeezed
Ageing population continues to offer growth potential
Occupancy rates in residential care homes rise above nursing homes
Demand for specialist care homes increases due to rise in illnesses that require greater and specific care
requirements
Staff cost differentials apparent despite restrictive financial situation in the industry
Regional analysis
Figure 40: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14
(Number of people)
Figure 41: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care graph, by region, 2009/10 and
2013/14 (Number of people)
Figure 42: Local authority-supported adults in independent sector residential care, by region,
2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
Figure 43: Local authority-supported adults in independent sector residential care graph, by region, 2009/10
and 2013/14 (Number of people)
Figure 44: Local authority-supported adults in LA-staffed residential care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14
(Number of people)
Figure 45: Local authority-supported adults in LA-staffed residential care graph, by region, 2009/10 and
2013/14 (Number of people)
Figure 46: Local authority-supported adults in nursing care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
Figure 47: Local authority-supported adults in nursing care graph, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number
of people)
SUPPLIER OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Opportunities
Care home property market
Purpose-built care homes
Supply of goods
Efficiency
Demography and health trends
Self-funder market
Contract/purchasing negotiation
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Key points
Industry development
Figure 48: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2010-14
(Number of outlets and businesses)
Figure 49: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and
disabled industry, 2010-14 (Number of outlets and businesses)
Figure 50: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities
industry, 2010-14 (Number of outlets and businesses)
Structure by employment
Figure 51: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2013-14
(Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Figure 52: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled
industry, 2013-14 (Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Figure 53: Analysis of the employment structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities
industry, 2013-14 (Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Structure by turnover
Figure 54: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2013-14 (£ 000
and % of total turnover)
Figure 55: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled
industry, 2013-14 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
Figure 56: Analysis of the financial structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities
industry, 2013-14 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
COMPANY PROFILES
ABBEYFIELD SOCIETY
Figure 57: Financial analysis of Abbeyfield Society, 2010-14 (£000)
Company outlook
ANCHOR TRUST
Figure 58: Financial analysis of Anchor Trust, 2010-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
AVANTE CARE AND SUPPORT (FORMERLY AVANTE PARTNERSHIP)
Figure 59: Financial analysis of Avante Care & Support, 2010-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
BARCHESTER HEALTHCARE
Figure 60: Financial analysis of Barchester Healthcare, 2010-14 (£ 000)
Company outlook
BUPA
Figure 61: Financial analysis of Bupa, 2010-14 (£ million)
Figure 62: Divisional analysis of Bupa, 2011-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
BUPA CARE HOMES (ANS)
Figure 63: Financial analysis of Bupa Care Homes (ANS), 2010-14 (£ million)
BUPA CARE HOMES (CFG)
Figure 64: Financial analysis of Bupa Care Homes (CFG), 2009-13 (£ million)
CARE UK
Figure 65: Financial analysis of Care UK, 2010-14 (£ million)
Figure 66: Revenue breakdown of Care UK, by division, 2013-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
EMBRACE
Figure 67: Financial analysis of Embrace, 2014 (£ 000)
Company outlook
FOUR SEASONS HEALTH CARE
Figure 68: Financial analysis of Four Seasons Health Care, 2010-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
HC-ONE
Figure 69: Financial analysis of HC-One, 2012-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
HOUSING & CARE
Figure 70: Financial analysis of Housing & Care 21 (formerly Housing 21), 2010-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
METHODIST HOMES
Figure 71: Financial analysis of Methodist Homes, 2010-14 (£ million)
Company outlook
MINSTER CARE GROUP
Figure 72: Financial analysis of Minster Care Group, 2010-14 (£ 000)
Company Outlook
PRIORY GROUP
Figure 73: Financial analysis of the Priory Group, 2010-14 (£ million)
Figure 74: Financial analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2010-14 (£ 000)
Group outlook
SANCTUARY CARE
Figure 75: Financial analysis of Sanctuary Care, 2011-15 (£ 000)
Company outlook
Figure 76: Profiled companies’ turnover, 2010-14 (£ million)
FORECAST
Key points
The market
Demographic trends
Challenges posed by domiciliary care market
Care home fees
Care home property market
Self-funders
Care providers
Government and regulatory action
Market forecast
Figure 77: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market, by type of purchaser,
2016-20 (£ million)
Figure 78: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market graph, by type of purchaser,
2016-20 (£ million)
Figure 79: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of registered places, 2016-20 (000 places) .. 146
Figure 80: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of places graph, 2016-20 (000 places)
Figure 81: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of homes, 2016-20 (Number of homes)
Figure 82: Forecast UK residential and nursing care graph, by number of homes, 2016-20 (Number of
homes)
Sheltered housing
Figure 83: Forecast UK sheltered housing units, 2016-20 (000)
Figure 84: Forecast UK sheltered housing units graph, 2016-20 (000)
Household support
Difficulties in expanding care home workforce
Technology
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations and organisations
Age UK
Carers UK
Care England (formerly English Community Care Association)
National Care Association
National Care Forum
Trade magazines
Care Management Matters
Care Talk
Caring Times
Caring UK
Community Care
Trade exhibitions
Care England 2015
Care and Dementia Show 2015
Health + Care 2016
NAIDEX 2016
Nursing in Practice 2015
Primary Care and Public Health 2016
UK B2B
Trade research
Informal
Formal
Desk research
Consumer research
Sampling and weighting
Definitions
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Statistical forecasting

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