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Poultry - US - 2015

Poultry - US - October 2015

"Poultry has enjoyed steady sales increases since 2010 with continued growth through 2020, largely based on consumers’ interest in eating better with leaner protein, and due to the increasing cost of beef. Other poultry – including turkey, duck, and other fowl – has had the strongest growth of all poultry segments"

Randy Hofbauer, Food Analyst

This report covers the following areas:

Decline in red meat consumption benefits poultry sales
Natural chicken brands see growth
Turkey also enjoys growth


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
Figure 2: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, chicken, June 2015
Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of turkey, at current prices, 2010-20
The opportunities
Figure 4: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Figure 5: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, June 2015
What it means
Figure 6: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Red meat decline, lower poultry prices help drive poultry sales
Avian flu has mixed effects on chicken, turkey
Convenience factor leads to greater sales of chicken parts
Market size and forecast
Lower prices, declining red meat consumption continue poultry’s boost
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Convenience and more cooking options to grow chicken parts sales
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at current prices, 2010-20
Whole chickens see smallest sales rise
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at current prices, 2010-20
Other poultry sees largest growth thanks to turkey
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
Market factors
Increased red meat prices to boost poultry sales
Figure 12: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
Concerns about red meat and health helps poultry
Figure 13: Age-adjusted geometric mean triglyceride and mean LDL cholesterol levels by sex and race/ethnicity among adults aged 20 years or
older, 1988-2010
Avian flu drives down broiler costs
While avian flu negatively impacts turkey supply
Tyson, private label hold largest shares in poultry
Figure 14: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
KEY PLAYERS
Tyson suffers chicken losses, while GNP sees increases
Figure 15: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Hormel, Cargill enjoy turkey sales growth
Figure 16: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Tyson dominates other poultry with Cornish hens
Figure 17: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Chicken brands winning with natural products
Figure 18: Harvestland frozen/refrigerated chicken
Versatility message boosts turkey sales
Figure 19: Jennie-O Taco Ride commercial
Figure 20: Butterball Turketarian commercial
Figure 21: Butterball Everyday turkey products
What’s next?
More chicken to go antibiotic-free, turkey to follow
Turkey brands to continue growth through Millennials
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Chicken seen as an everyday protein; turkey a red meat substitute
Millennials willing to pay more for value-added poultry
Poultry transparency important to Millennials, Hispanics
Millennial parents more likely to purchase natural, organic poultry
The chicken buyer
Chicken seen as an everyday protein
Figure 22: Types purchased, chicken, June 2015
Chicken seen as a versatile, creative option
Figure 23: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
Figure 24: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, June 2015
Chicken preferred as value-priced, healthy option
Figure 25: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
Brand is most important factor in chicken purchase; natural/free-from also key
Figure 26: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
The turkey buyer
Turkey seen as special occasion meat, chicken alternative
Figure 27: Types purchased, turkey, June 2015
Turkey’s versatility inspires creativity
Figure 28: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
Poultry safety, transparency is important; buyers willing to pay more for turkey “upgrades”
Figure 29: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
The other poultry buyer
Other poultry is a specialty purchase
Figure 30: Types Purchased, other poultry, June 2015
Other poultry seen as premium indulgence
Figure 31: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
Millennials and poultry
Millennials more likely than Boomers to purchase turkey
Figure 32: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
Millennials want safe, transparent poultry
Figure 33: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Store brand poultry appeals to Millennials
Figure 34: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Older Millennials most likely to pay more for BFY, premium poultry
Figure 35: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Convenient packaging a plus with Millennials
Figure 36: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
Hispanics and poultry
Hispanic Millennials more likely to purchase turkey
Figure 37: Any purchase of turkey (fresh or frozen), by demographics, June 2015
Hispanic Millennials particularly want to learn more about their poultry
Figure 38: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Hispanic Millennials willing to pay for BFY, premium poultry
Figure 39: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
Hispanics enjoy poultry variety
Figure 40: Reasons for purchasing poultry - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
Parents and poultry
Millennial parents want natural, organic poultry
Figure 41: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
Baby Boomers and poultry
Low price important to Boomers purchasing poultry
Figure 42: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
Boomers purchase poultry for variety, versatility reasons
Figure 43: Reasons for eating less red meat, by demographics, December 2014
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 45: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 49: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 2013-July 2015
Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15.60
Figure 52: Share of natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry making specific label claims, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks
ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15
Consumer
Figure 53: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 6 months, January
2007-December 2014
Figure 54: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 7 days, January 2007-December
2014
Figure 55: Household usage, by type, by demographic – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, fresh/frozen Cornish game hen
used in the last 7 days, November 2013-December 2014
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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