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Pizza - US - September 2016

Pizza - US - September 2016

While annual growth in the pizza category has fluctuated over the last several years, the pace picked up modestly in 2015 and 2016, buoyed by growing interest in more premium pizzas. Pizza marketers and retailers have an opportunity to accelerate growth further by continuing to introduce creative new flavors and combinations and capturing new use occasions.

This report examines the following areas:

Slow pace of growth continues
Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Slow pace of growth continues
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
Figure 2: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, June 2016
Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
Figure 3: Pizza purchase factors, June 2016
The opportunities
Opportunity to disrupt the pizza shopping routine
Figure 4: Pizza shopping behaviors, June 2016
Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
Figure 5: Interest in new features, by age, June 2016
Young adults claim a wider array of eating occasions
Opportunity for higher quality, exploration
Figure 6: Pizza consumption occasions, by age, June 2016
Figure 7: Attitudes toward pizza, any agree, June 2016
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Slow pace of growth continues
Frozen pizza sets the pace for the category
Sales cool for refrigerated pizza and kits
Market size and forecast
Slow pace of growth continues
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
Market breakdown
Frozen pizza sets the pace for the category
Sales cool for refrigerated pizza and kits
Figure 10: Sales of pizza, by segment, 2011-16
Supermarkets remain primary retail channel
Figure 11: Sales of pizza, by retail channel, 2014 and 2016
Market perspective
Restaurant visitation highest among young adults, giving retail pizza competition
Figure 12: Pizza segment visitation in the past three months, September 2015
Explosion in delivery services may threaten pizza
Figure 13: Key players in foodservice delivery
Center-store location impacts frozen pizza perceptions
Figure 14: Center-of-the-store attributes, November 2015
Market factors
Households and households with children
Figure 15: Percentage of households with children, 2003-13
Incidence of household frozen pizza usage declines slightly over time
Figure 16: Household incidence of frozen pizza consumption, 2011-16
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Big three lose share to smaller players, private label
Premiumization drives dollar sales growth
Sales of pizza from weight-loss brands suffer amid broader declines
Pursuing a more healthful image through free-from claims
Blurring the line between meals and snacks
Company sales of pizza
Big three lose share to smaller players, private label
Figure 17: Company sales of pizza, 2015-16
What’s working?
Premiumization drives dollar sales growth
Screamin’ Sicilian lifts Palermo Villa to number-four spot
Bernatello’s Brew Pub line continues to gain
American Flatbread features gourmet pizzas with local and regional ingredients
New brand from Schwan’s appeals to more adult tastes
Retailers gain share with their own pizzas
Figure 18: Private label share of pizza, by segment, 2015-16
What’s struggling?
Sales of pizza from weight-loss brands suffer amid broader declines
What’s next?
Pursuing a more healthful image through free-from claims
Figure 19: Claims on pizza product launches, 2011-16
Catering to specific dietary needs
Blurring the line between meals and snacks
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
Opportunity to expand beyond weeknight dinners
Opportunity to disrupt the shopping routine
Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
A cost-effective, convenient standby, but still not as good as delivery
Household pizza consumption
Frozen pizza a popular, convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
Figure 20: Household pizza consumption, June 2016
Pizza consumption highest among young adults, especially young men
Figure 21: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by gender and age, June 2016
Consumption frequency increases with household size
Figure 22: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by household size, June 2016
Hispanic consumers a key market for retail pizza
Figure 23: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
Pizza consumption occasions and behaviors
Opportunity to expand beyond weeknight dinners
Figure 24: Pizza consumption occasions and behaviors, June 2016
Young adults claim a wider array of eating occasions
Figure 25: Pizza consumption occasions and behaviors, by age, June 2016
Pizza shopping behaviors
Opportunity to disrupt the shopping routine
Figure 26: Pizza shopping behaviors, June 2016
Young adults more likely to try new varieties
Figure 27: Pizza shopping behaviors, by age, June 2016
Pizza purchase factors
Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
Healthfulness of only moderate concern
Figure 28: Pizza purchase factors, June 2016
Younger adults consider more factors when selecting pizza
Figure 29: Pizza purchase factors, by age, June 2016
Interest in new features and flavors
Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
Figure 30: Interest in new features, by age, June 2016
Attitudes toward pizza
A cost-effective, convenient standby, but still not as good as delivery
Opportunity for higher quality, exploration
Private label pizza is gaining but still has room to improve image
Figure 31: Attitudes toward pizza, June 2016
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Market
Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza kits and components, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 36: Total US retail sales of pizza, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Key players
Figure 37: MULO sales of frozen pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 38: MULO sales of refrigerated pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 39: MULO sales of pizza kits and components, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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