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Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2015

Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2015


“The red meat category features lamb and other red meats that are not regularly eaten by mainstream meat consumers. There is an opportunity to educate consumers about the lower saturated fat levels in these other meats, and provide them instruction about how they can be used in some of their favorite dishes. Offering the new meats in familiar formats, such as stews, wraps, bowls, etc, could entice consumers to try them."

Julia Gallo-Torres, Senior Analyst, Food and Drink/Foodservice Reports

This report answers the following questions:

How to spur trial of less familiar meats, such as lamb?
Households with children eat more meat, but those with older children can't afford to buy more. How to appeal to parents?
The use of red meat declines with age. How to spur interest?


SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“Other meats” growing faster than beef and pork
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Sales and forecast of packaged red meat
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
More new meat product launches feature pork instead of beef
Figure 3: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
Market drivers
Significant increases in price drive consumers away from red meat
Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
Figure 4: Changing behavior: eating more beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
The number of households with children is on the decline
Competitive context
Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
Figure 5: Health-related reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
Pink slime and other scandals still on consumers’ minds
Consumers most prefer beef, ground meat
Figure 6: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, November 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How to spur trial of less familiar meats, such as lamb?
Issues
Insight: Focus on health benefits of less popular meats and lower cost
Households with children eat more meat, but those with older children can’t afford to buy more. How to appeal to parents?
Issues
Insight: Highlight natural traits and offer fast-food type of products
The use of red meat declines with age. How to spur interest?
Issues
Insight: Focus on nutritional properties and product purity
TREND APPLICATION
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of market
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Sales of packaged red meat to reach $4.8 billion in 2019
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Food prices rise, making red meat a premium item
Figure 10: Changes in consumer food price indexes, 2012-15
Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
The number of households with children is on the decline
Figure 11: Total US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
Food scandals continue to make consumers wary of the origin of meat
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Lamb and other meats enjoy rapid rise in market share growth, like beef
Sales of market, by segment
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Higher meat prices hurting red meat category
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – BEEF
Key points
High prices and quality concerns to result in flat beef sales from 2014-19
Sales and forecast of beef
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – PORK
Limited supplies lead to higher prices and lower pork sales
Sales and forecast of pork
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – OTHER RED MEATS
Key points
Sales of other meats expected to slow down during the 2014-19 period
Sales and forecast of other red meats
Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets’ share of red meat sales increases
Sales of red meat, by channel
Figure 20: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
Sales of red meat, by other retail channels
Figure 21: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
Sales of packaged red meat grew steadily from 2009-14
Figure 22: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-14
LEADING COMPANIES
Category growth driven by gains in refrigerated red meat segment
Figure 23: Cargill, “Ground Beef Production: From Start to Delicious Finish,” YouTube video, November 2014
Manufacturer sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products
Figure 24: MULO sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
BRAND SHARE – REFRIGERATED RED MEAT
Key points
Manufacturer sales of refrigerated red meat
Figure 25: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 26: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
BRAND SHARE – PACKAGED PORK AND PORK PRODUCTS
Convenience drives pork growth
Figure 27: Hormel “Always Tender Pork Tenderloin – Grilling,” internet video, June 2014
Figure 28: Farmland, “Farmland - For the Love of Pork,” television commercial, June 2014
Manufacturer sales of packaged pork and pork products
Figure 29: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 30: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Increases in new packaging, pork products, and allergy-related claims
Figure 31: Percentage of red meat introductions, by launch type, January 2010-December 2014
Figure 32: Top claims on red meat introductions, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
Figure 33: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
Figure 34: Leading nonmeat ingredients found in packaged meat products, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
Manufacturers respond with more natural products
Consumers seeking products to address certain dietary concerns
Cost still a barrier for many consumers
CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS FOR PACKAGED RED MEAT
Methodology
Concerns about purity and price push consumers to poultry
Figure 35: Correspondence analysis, February 2015
Figure 36: Characteristics consumers associate with different types of meat, February 2015
OVERVIEW – FREQUENCY AND TYPE OF MEAT CONSUMPTION
Key points
Beef is the favorite type of red meat consumers prefer, but those aged 25-34 also like exotic meats
Figure 37: Frequency of eating red meat at home, November 2014
Figure 38: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by age, November 2014
Figure 39: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by gender, November 2014
Figure 40: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same, November 2014
Consumers want meat products that are natural and unadulterated
Figure 41: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, November 2014
Figure 42: How red meat is cooked and prepared, November 2014
Figure 43: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Restaurants offer red meats at value prices and quick service
Figure 44: Where red meat purchases are made, November 2014
CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – BEEF
Key points
Households with children eating more beef than previous year
Figure 45: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Beef, November 2014
Parents use beef as a good source of nutrition for their children, fathers do so more than mothers
Figure 46: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 47: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 48: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 49: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by gender, November 2014
CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – PORK/HAM
Key points
iGeneration/Millennials most likely to say they have cut down on the amount of pork and ham they are eating
Figure 50: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by household income, November 2014
Figure 51: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
Figure 52: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by age, November 2014
Parents, pork, and prepubescents
Figure 53: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 54: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – LAMB
Key points
iGeneration/Millennials most likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
Figure 55: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by age, November 2014
Figure 56: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by generation, November 2014
Households with children and men with children are more likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
Figure 57: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 58: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – OTHER RED MEAT
Key points
Those aged 25-34 are most likely to say they are eating more red meat than during the prior year
Figure 59: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by age, November 2014
Figure 60: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by area, November 2014
Men, including men with small children, eat more types of meat
Figure 61: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 62: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
REASONS CONSUMERS ARE EATING LESS RED MEAT
Key points
Teens are expensive to feed, and women are turning to other proteins
Figure 63: Reasons for eating less red meat, by gender, November 2014
Figure 64: Reasons for eating less red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Aging consumers try to control health by reducing red meat intake
Figure 65: Reasons for eating less red meat, by age, November 2014
PREFERRED RED MEAT CHARACTERISTICS
Key points
Purity of beef of great concern to consumers
Figure 66: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by gender, November 2014
Figure 67: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by generation, November 2014
Figure 68: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by household income, November 2014
Parents want purest products for youngest children
Figure 69: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 70: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Natural and additive-free are also important in pork and ham products
Figure 71: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by gender, November 2014
Figure 72: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
Those living in the West most likely to seek all-natural and local farm-sourced lamb items
Figure 73: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by gender, November 2014
Figure 74: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by region, November 2014
Figure 75: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by millennial parents, November 2014
Natural, vegetarian-fed properties are important in other types of red meat products
Figure 76: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
Figure 77: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 78: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by presence of children in household, November 2014
WHERE CONSUMERS PURCHASE RED MEAT
Key points
Older consumers use supermarkets for red meat purchases more than younger counterparts
Figure 79: Where red meat purchases are made, by age, November 2014
Figure 80: Where red meat purchases are made, by generation, November 2014
Figure 81: Where red meat purchases are made, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Eating more, November 2014
Restaurants provide parents red meat products at competitive prices
Figure 82: Where red meat purchases are made, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 83: Where red meat purchases are made, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 84: Where red meat purchases are made, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
Higher income focuses on natural/specialty supermarkets and butcher shops
Figure 85: Where red meat purchases are made, by household income, November 2014
HOW RED MEAT IS PREPARED AT HOME
Key points
Generation Xers more motivated to cook at home than iGeneration/Millennials
Figure 86: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender, November 2014
Figure 87: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by generation, November 2014
Figure 88: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by household income, November 2014
THE CONSUMER – RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics want gamier meats, while Whites and Blacks prefer more mainstream products
Figure 89: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 90: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 91: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 92: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
APPENDIX – FREQUENCY AND TYPE OF MEAT CONSUMPTION
Figure 93: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by region, November 2014
Figure 94: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by area, November 2014
Figure 95: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by generations, November 2014
Figure 96: Reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – BEEF
Figure 97: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by age, November 2014
Figure 98: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by generation, November 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – PORK/HAM
Figure 99: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by area, November 2014
Figure 100: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by presence of children in household, November 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF RED MEATS – LAMB
Figure 101: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by area, November 2014
APPENDIX – REASONS CONSUMERS ARE EATING LESS RED MEAT
Figure 102: Reasons for eating less red meat, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
APPENDIX – PREFERRED RED MEAT CHARACTERISTICS
Figure 103: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 104: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
APPENDIX – WHERE CONSUMERS PURCHASE RED MEAT
Figure 105: Where red meat purchases are made, by gender, November 2014
APPENDIX – HOW RED MEAT IS PREPARED AT HOME
Figure 106: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by area, November 2014
Figure 107: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 108: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
Figure 109: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by region, November 2014
APPENDIX – RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Figure 110: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 111: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 112: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 113: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
Figure 114: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER TABLES – MARKET SIZES
Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 116: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
American Association of Meat Processors (AAMP)
American Meat Institute (AMI)
Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
National Meat Association (NMA)
Natural Products Association (NPA)
Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
US METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER RESEARCH
Primary Data Analysis
Secondary Data Analysis
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Social Media Research
TRADE RESEARCH
STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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