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Non-dairy Milk - US - April 2016

Non-dairy Milk - US - April 2016

"Total non-dairy milk sales are expected to continue upward as consumers search for better-for-you alternatives to dairy milk, and as plant-based alternatives continue to trend to meet a variety of consumers’ dietary needs. Flavor, function, and nutritional innovation will help keep consumers interested and attract new audiences, while the wide variety of plant-based milks addresses consumers’ diverse health needs and taste preferences."

- Elizabeth Sisel, Beverage Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

Majority of non-dairy milk consumers drink dairy milk
Soy milk continues to lose ground
Room for more frequent consumption


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 3: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
The opportunities
Figure 4: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
Figure 5: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
Figure 6: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
Dairy milk category sees declines
Health, media attention drive non-dairy milk growth
Market size and forecast
Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
“Other” non-dairy milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, by percentage change, at current prices, 2010-20
All channels experience sales gains from 2013-15
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Natural channel non-dairy milk sales grow
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013 to Nov. 29, 2015
Almond milk leading segment at natural channels
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
Market perspective
Dairy milk category sees declines
Figure 15: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Vast majority of non-dairy drinkers consume dairy milk
Figure 18: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Market factors
Non-dairy milk’s healthful image challenged in the media
Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
Millennial population has positive growth
Figure 20: Population by generation, 2011-21
Hispanic population growing
Figure 21: Population by Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
Figure 22: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
Figure 23: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Figure 24: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
Almond, coconut, “other” milks see success at MULO channels
Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
Non-dairy milks see flavor, function innovation
Manufacturer sales of non-dairy milk
Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Manufacturer sales of non-dairy milk
Figure 26: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Almond milks’ popularity continues at MULO channels
Coconut milk sees MULO sales gains across leading companies, brands
“Other” non-dairy milks experience stellar growth
What’s struggling?
Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
What’s next?
New non-dairy milks and blends offer flavor, health opportunities
Room for more functionality
Global innovation features new flavors, forms
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Consumers drink many different types of non-dairy milks
Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
Majority of adults drink non-dairy milk
54% of children drink non-dairy milk
Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk, followed by health
Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
Many consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
Cross-consumption of non-dairy milks
Consumers drink multiple non-dairy milks types
Figure 27: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption of soy/almond/
cashew/coconut milks, January 2016
Non-dairy milk consumption on the rise at home, at foodservice
Figure 28: Beverage Tracker – Non-dairy milk consumption, June 2014 to September 2015
Cross-consumption of non-dairy and dairy milk
Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
Figure 29: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Figure 30: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of soy milk/almond
milk/rice milk/oat milk/cashew milk/coconut milk, January 2016
Figure 31: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of flax seed milk/hemp
milk/hazelnut milk/quinoa milk/sunflower milk/other nut milks, January 2016
Core consumers – Adult consumption
58% of adults drink non-dairy milk
Figure 32: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
Older Millennials heaviest non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by Millennial generation, January 2016
Figure 34: Any non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender and age, January 2016
Parents more likely to drink non-dairy milk than non-parents
Figure 35: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
Hispanics active non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 36: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Core consumers – Child(ren) consumption
54% of children drink non-dairy milk
Figure 37: Non-dairy milk consumption – Child(ren) consumption, January 2016
Consumption frequency
Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
Figure 38: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
Older Millennials frequent non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 39: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by generation, January 2016
Figure 40: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by parental status, January 2016
Opportunity to increase Blacks’ non-dairy milk consumption
Figure 41: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Consumption habits
Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
Figure 42: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
Figure 43: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, by generation, January 2016
Highlighting functional attributes of non-dairy milk through occasion
Figure 44: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, January 2016
Figure 45: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, by generation, January 2016
Preferred attributes
Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
Figure 46: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
Older Millennials look for natural, organic, flavored non-dairy milks
Figure 47: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, by generation, January 2016
Attitudes and behaviors toward non-dairy milk
Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
Figure 48: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
Millennials drink non-dairy milk outside the home, make at home
Figure 49: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, by generation, January 2016
Reasons for consuming
Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk
Figure 50: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
Younger Millennials least likely to drink non-dairy milk for health reasons
Figure 51: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
Parents drink non-dairy milk for their health
Figure 52: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
Opportunities for greater nutritional, flavor awareness with Hispanics
Figure 53: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Non-dairy milk innovation
Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
Figure 54: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
Older Millennials seek non-dairy milk innovation
Figure 55: Non-dairy milk innovation, by generation, January 2016
Milk perceptions
Consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
Figure 56: Milk perceptions, January 2016
Consumers in their own words
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Key players
Figure 67: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 68: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 69: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 70: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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