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Movie Sales and Rentals - US - August 2015

Movie Sales and Rentals - US - August 2015

"The Big Three subscription services have become staples of American life and are now also major forces in original content, with substantial ad budgets. Based on the success of these services, myriad new streaming services are sprouting up, including HBO Now, and Showtime Anytime. While households have often being willing to keep adding services to date, the industry will eventually run up against concerns about cost, making ad-supported streaming services more competitive."

- Billy Hulkower, Senior Technology Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:
No growth as share shifts between segments
Mounting competition


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Share of home video sales, purchases vs rentals vs subscriptions, 2015
Figure 2: Interest in short-form content and building digital libraries, May 2015
The opportunities
Figure 3: Interest in additional features and willingness to pay for HD content, May 2015
Figure 4: Preference for and usage of ad-supported streams, May 2015
Figure 5: Attitudes and preferences in content selection, May 2015
Figure 6: Enthusiasm for home video, dads vs all viewers, May 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Growth from HD and UHD in second half of decade
Subscription cannibalizes single transaction
New services vs. EST/rentals vs. pay TV
Market size and forecast
HD and UHD to assist sales
Figure 7: Total US home video sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Shift from single transaction to subscription
Figure 8: Home video sales, by segment, 2013-15
Market perspective
Pay TV channels migrate online
Short-form competitive
Market factors
Familiarity with Hollywood fare
Figure 9: Familiarity as driver in content selection, May 2015
Figure 10: Box office ticket sales and number of theatrical releases, 2009-15
Figure 11: Attitudes to binging and browsing, May 2015
Adoption of 4K
Figure 12: Manufacturer sales of 4K UHD televisions, 2013-15
Figure 13: Ownership of 4K UHD television sets, selected demographics, May 2015
Release windows
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Five leaders
Second tier could use ad support
Original content establishes wide moats
Subscriptions – What’s working?
Netflix rules via unlimited
Amazon extends its brand
Figure 14: Subscription to Netflix and Amazon Instant Video, May 2015
Freemium working at Hulu
Purchases and rentals – What’s working?
Redbox performs on price
Amazon tops digital single-transaction
Figure 15: Leading transactional services, May 2015
What’s struggling?
Out of sight, out of mind
Figure 16: Transactional video on demand services with 5% or less share of last transaction, May 2015
What’s next?
Dominance via original content
Turning short-form into linear channels
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Age, parental status central to behavior
Viewing on television benefits incumbents
Dads top targets
Market participation – Purchase, rental, cVOD, sVOD
Two in three spent on home video in past month
Figure 17: Market participation by type of activity, May 2015
Figure 18: Number of movies bought or rented in past month, May 2015
Figure 19: Market participation, select demographics, May 2015
How content is viewed
Usage on television sets growing rapidly
Figure 20: Internet connectivity via televisions and A/V equipment, September 2014
Half view on connected TV weekly
Figure 21: Methods of watching movies and television shows, September 2014
Comfort with mobile grows
Figure 22: Favorable perspective for mobile usage, April 2012-December 2014
Ad support
Half prefer ads in lieu of payment
Stretched households appreciate ad-based viewership
Figure 23: Preference for and usage of ad-supported streams, selected demographics, May 2015
The Hispanic audience
Elevated usage, positive attitudes
Figure 24: Attitudes to video consumption, Hispanics vs all viewers, May 2015
In focus – Dads
Dads score higher on every index
Figure 25: Interest in foreign, independent, and HD content, Dads vs all viewers, May 2015
High value groups
Parents, urbanites, 25-34s paying for HD and building libraries
Figure 26: Paying a premium for HD and building a digital library, selected demographics, May 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 27: Total US home video sales and forecast, at current prices, 2010-20
Consumer
Figure 28: Use of Netflix in past 30 days, April 2012-December 2014
Figure 29: Attitudes toward digital video consumption, April 2012-December 2014
Figure 30: Penetration of usage of online video, April 2013-December 2014
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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