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Lotteries - UK - February 2016

Lotteries - UK - February 2016

“Recent changes to Lotto pricing and formats look positive for market value growth, but operators are still trailing all other gambling sectors online. Instant wins could get them back in the game.”

– David Walmsley, Senior Leisure Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

Have new Lotto formats changed the game?
How can lotteries be a bigger draw for the young?
Are lotteries losing out online?


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Lotto changes look good for growth
Figure 1: UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
Scratchcards at home in culture of instant wins
Figure 2: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2010/11-2014/15
Expanding society sector trims National Lottery’s lead
Figure 3: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2010/11-2014/15
Innovation steps up to stem participation decline
Figure 4: Participation in lottery games, November 2015
Younger players exhibit commitment issues
Figure 5: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, November 2015
Corner shops give way to supermarkets
Figure 6: Methods of purchasing lottery products, November 2015
Impulse play getting stronger
Figure 7: Lottery game purchasing habits, November 2016
Winners dream of saving big
Figure 8: Top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2016
What we think
ISSUES & INSIGHTS
Have new Lotto formats changed the game?
How can lotteries be a bigger draw for the young?
Are lotteries losing out online?
THE MARKET
What you need to know
New Lotto format looks positive for growth
Instant-win culture keeps scratchcard sales booming
Lottery demographics keep retail dominant
Numbers betting an ongoing threat
Market size and forecast
Market enjoys ticket price rise
Figure 9: UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
Forecast
Figure 10: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
Segment performance
Instant wins remain the long-term success story
Figure 11: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2010/11-2014/15
Market drivers
Lottery still at gambling’s softer edge
Figure 12: Participation in gambling activities, by participation in other gambling activities, March 2015
Longer odds at the top, better chances at the bottom
Instant wins set pace for growth online
Figure 13: National Lottery Lotto draw sales (Saturday and Wednesday combined), by value and volume, 2011-15
Figure 14: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2010/11-2014/15
Numbers betting business sees a dip
Figure 15: Numbers betting market, 2010/11-2014/15
Regulatory change on the cards
Figure 16: Sales of National Lottery scratchcards and IWGs online, 2010/11-2014/15
Cultivating the culture of instant win
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Leader’s share slips in face of society growth
People’s Postcode Lottery challenges for second spot
Lotto changes offer two chances for growth
Cutting prices fails to offer a shortcut to success
Leading players take differing promotional routes
Market share
Market structure
Rapid growth carves societies a bigger niche
Figure 17: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2010/11-2014/15
Launch activity and innovation
New Lotto format fights on two fronts
Low-cost lottery cuts its losses
Camelot moves to shift retail players online
Faster payments a smarter option for mobile play
Scratchcards spread along the high street
Brand focus moves towards good-cause contributions
Brand communication and promotion
Major players step up promotional push
Figure 18: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, 2013-15
National games turn to TV, local schemes keep personal touch
Figure 19: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, by media type, 2013-15
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Participation rates stuck on downward path
Those who stay are happy to commit
Supermarkets top of the lottery shopping list
Impulse play appeals to the young
Winners ready to save as much as spend
Lottery games played
Lotto price rises, participation rates fall
Figure 20: Participation in lottery games, November 2015
Figure 21: Participation in selected National Lottery games, 2013-15
Instant wins – Have younger players scratched that itch?
Figure 22: Participation in National Lottery scratchcard games, by age, 2013-15
Frequency of lottery play
Lottery play a frequent habit
Figure 23: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, November 2015
Subscriptions offer a shortcut to giving
Figure 24: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, by age, November 2015
Lottery purchasing patterns
Supermarkets sweep past corner shops
Figure 25: Methods of purchasing lottery products, November 2015
Mobile fails to dent retail preferences
Figure 26: Repertoire of locations lottery products purchased from, November 2015
Lottery purchasing habits
New technologies to regularise the impulsive
Figure 27: Lottery game purchasing habits, November 2016
Spreading scratchcard impulse beyond the store
Figure 28: Lottery games played, by purchasing habits, November 2015
Digital shopping can put lotteries on the list
Figure 29: Purchasing lottery products in supermarkets, by lottery game purchasing habits, November 2015
Lottery prize spending preferences
Spend, spend, spend? Save, save, save actually
Figure 30: Top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2016
Holidays for the impulsive, savings for regulars
Figure 31: Purchasing of National Lottery scratchcards, by top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2015
APPENDIX
Appendix
Data sources
Abbreviations
Fan chart forecast
Figure 32: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2015/16-2020/21
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
UK Research Methodology
Sampling and weighting
Face to Face Surveys
Definitions
Brand & Social Media Research
Trade research
Desk research
Statistical Forecasting
The Mintel fan chart

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