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Innovations in Soft Drinks - Ireland - November 2015

Innovations in Soft Drinks - Ireland - November 2015

“The soft drinks industry has seen a period of strong innovation, with low-calorie and sugar trends helping to drive the market. Moving forward, with more pressure being exerted on the industry over the sugar content of some drinks, this will likely see companies doing more to reformulate their products to help maintain market share.”

– Brian O’Connor, Senior Consumer AnalystThis report looks at the following areas:

Which sector of the soft drinks market is most valuable – carbonated drinks or non-carbonated drinks?
What impact has growing concerns about sugar and obesity had on the types of soft drinks used by consumers?
What types of soft drinks are most used by Irish consumers?


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this report
Bottled water
Fruit juices, fruit drinks and smoothies
Cordials and squashes
Carbonated drinks
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Estimated value sales for all soft drinks, by segment, NI and RoI, 2015
Forecast
Figure 2: Indexed estimated value sales for all on-trade vs. off-trade soft drink sales, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Market factors
Obesity and sugar a growing threat to the market
Aging population could provide opportunities for fortified drinks
Usage of discounters slowing soft drink prices
Craft beer trend transferable to soft drinks
Companies and Innovations
The consumer
Bottled water is the most used type of non-carbonate
Figure 3: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk at home in the last month, NI and RoI,
August 2015
Figure 4: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk outside of the home in the last month,
NI and RoI, August 2015
Cola is king of the carbonates
Figure 5: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk at home in the last month, NI and RoI,
August 2015
Figure 6: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk outside of the home in the last month, NI
and RoI, August 2015
Strong demand for more soft drinks fortified with vitamins and minerals
Figure 7: Types of drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future – for noncarbonates,
NI and RoI, August 2015
‘Flu fighting’ carbonates appeal to consumers
Figure 8: Types of drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future – for
carbonates, NI and RoI, August 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Which sector of the soft drinks market is most valuable – carbonated drinks or non-carbonated
drinks?
The facts
The implications
What impact has growing concerns about sugar and obesity had on the types of soft drinks used
by consumers?
The facts
The implications
What types of soft drinks are most used by Irish consumers?
The facts
The implications
What types of innovations for soft drinks would capture the attention of Irish consumers?
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Slight decline in soft drink sales
Carbonated soft drinks largest segment in 2015
Obesity and sugar – Key market threats
Opportunities in senior energy drinks and craft beverages
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Soft drink sales see small decline in 2015
Figure 9: Estimated value sales for all soft drinks, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Sluggish growth in foodservice outlets and pubs/clubs impacting on-trade soft drink sales
Figure 10: Estimated value sales for all on-trade soft drinks, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Decrease in consumer prices dents off-trade drinks sales
Figure 11: Estimated value sales for all off-trade soft drinks, NI and RoI, 2010-20
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Carbonates account for largest share of the market
Figure 12: Estimated value sales for all soft drinks, by segment, NI and RoI, 2015
Figure 13: Value sales of carbonated drinks market, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Cola accounts for 60% of total carbonated value
Figure 14: Estimated value sales of carbonated drinks market, by segment, NI and RoI, 2015
Juice the most valuable non-carbonated segment
Figure 15: Value sales of juice drinks market, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Non-fizzy water accounts for just over 10% of the total soft drinks markets
Figure 16: Estimated value of non-carbonated bottled water sector, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
RoI concentrate sales improve strongly between 2010 and 2015
Figure 17: Estimated value of concentrate sector (including cordials and squash), IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Sports and energy drink market loses momentum
Figure 18: Estimated value of sports and energy drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
MARKET DRIVERS
Ireland set to become the fattest EU nation
Figure 19: Percentage of the RoI population estimated to be obese or overweight, 2010 and 2030
Figure 20: Percentage of the UK population estimated to be obese or overweight, 2010 and 2030
Sugar content of soft drinks key issue
Figure 21: How consumers would change their carbonated beverage purchasing behaviour if additional
sugar tax were introduced, NI and RoI, November 2013
Sugar levels in soft drinks
Figure 22: Selected soft drink products, by calories and sugar content, UK, 2015
Figure 23: No. of soft drink products launched claiming to contain low/reduced/no sugar, UK and Ireland,
2011-15*
Aging population could pose challenges to carbonated drinks
Figure 24: Projected population of NI, by age, 2012-36
Figure 25: Projected population of RoI, by age, 2011-36
Aging population provides opportunities for energy/vitamin drinks
Consumer prices for soft drinks slowing in 2015
Figure 26: Consumer Price Index for mineral waters, soft drinks and juices, RoI, 2010 to 2015*
Figure 27: Consumer Price Index for mineral waters, soft drinks and juices, UK, 2010 to 2015*
Opportunities for craft soft drinks
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Launch of low/no/reduced sugar variants on the rise
Increasing demand for tropical flavours
Scope for growth in private label soft drinks
Cordials heat up for winter months
Canned formats of soft drinks NPD
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Launch of low/no/reduced sugar variants on the rise
Figure 28: Top 5 claims on soft drink launches in uk and Ireland, November 2010-2015
Increasing demand for tropical flavours
Scope for growth potential in private label launches
Figure 29: Share of new product launches within UK and Ireland, branded vs branded label, 2010-15
Growth opportunity for private label soft drinks
Figure 30: Top 5 companies in new product launches, UK and Ireland, 2010-2015
Cordials heat up for winter months
Convenience-driven consumers drive more can launches
Figure 31: Share of new product launches of soft drinks. UK and Ireland, 2010-15
Source: Mintel GNPD
COMPANY PROFILES
AG Barr
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 32: Carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, AG Barr, 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Bottlegreen
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 33: Carbonated soft drinks, Bottlegreen, November 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Britvic Ireland
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 34: Carbonated and Non-Carbonated soft drinks, Britvic, November 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Coca-Cola
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 35: Coca-Cola Ireland carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Danone
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Del Monte
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 36: Non-carbonated soft drinks, Del Monte, November 2015
Brand NPD
Lucozade Ribena Suntory
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 37: Carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, Lucozade Ribena Suntory, 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Mulrines
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
PepsiCo
Key facts
Product portfolio
Figure 38: Carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, PepsiCo, November 2015
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Princes
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Red Bull
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Sqeez (Valeo)
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Bottled water overall most likely type non-carbonated drink used
Standard colas most used type of carbonate
Functional ingredients appealing to health-conscious consumers
Functional carbonates important as well
THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF NON-CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Bottled water and squash top non-carbonates at home
Figure 39: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk at home in the last month, NI and
RoI, August 2015
Figure 40: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk outside of the home in the last
month, NI and RoI, August 2015
Women are primary water users
Figure 41: Where consumers have drunk still bottled water in the last month, by gender, NI and RoI, August
2015
Fruit juice sees strong home usage among younger consumers
Figure 42: Consumers who have drunk 100% fruit or vegetable juice and juice drinks at home in the last
month, by age, NI and RoI, August 2015
Concentrates have stronger appeal to NI consumers compared to RoI consumers
Figure 43: Consumers who have drunk squash or cordial at home in the last month, by social class, NI and
RoI, August 2015
THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Standard colas most popular at-home drink
Figure 44: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk at home in the last month, NI and RoI,
August 2015
Figure 45: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk outside of the home in the last month, NI
and RoI, August 2015
Men more likely to drink standard colas than women
Figure 46: Consumers who have drunk standard cola at home in the last month, by gender and age, NI and
RoI, August 2015
In-home diet cola usage in NI comparable with standard cola usage
Figure 47: Consumers have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola drinks in the last month, NI and RoI, August
2015
Mixers see strong in-home use
Figure 48: Consumers who have drunk mixers to be used with or without alcohol in the last month, NI and
RoI, August 2015
Figure 49: Consumers who have drunk mixers to be used with or without alcohol at home in the last month,
by gender, NI and RoI, August 2015
Strong trend to use spirits with mixers helping to boost usage
Figure 50: Types of white and dark spirits drunk with a mixer in the last 12 months, NI and RoI, December
2014
THE CONSUMER – TYPES OF NON-CARBONATED BEVERAGES CONSUMERS WOULD BE
INTERESTED IN TRYING
Fortified non-carbonates appeal to Irish consumers
Figure 51: Types of drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future – for noncarbonates,
NI and RoI, August 2015
Vitamin and mineral fortified drinks appeal to parents
Figure 52: Consumers who would be willing to buy non-carbonated drinks that are fortified with vitamins and
minerals in the future, by age of children in household, NI and RoI, August 2015
More stressful lives could help supply demand for ‘calming’ drinks
Figure 53: Consumers who would be willing to buy non-carbonated drinks with ingredients associated with
being calming/detoxing (eg peppermint, chamomile), by gender, NI and RoI, August 2015
Blends appeal to women and younger consumers
Figure 54: Consumers who would be willing to buy non-carbonated smoothies and fruit juice blends in a
cocktail-style (eg Mojito, Margarita), by gender and age, NI and RoI, August 2015
THE CONSUMER – TYPES OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES CONSUMERS WOULD BE
INTERESTED IN TRYING
Being fortified also important for carbonate drinks
Figure 55: Types of drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future – for
carbonates, NI and RoI, August 2015
Strong interest in natural low-calorie sweeteners
Figure 56: Consumers who would be willing to buy carbonated or non-carbonated drinks containing natural,
sugar-free sweeteners (eg honey, stevia), NI and RoI, August 2015
Strong demand for carbonated and non-carbonated ‘flu fighters’
Figure 57: Consumers who would be willing to buy carbonated or non-carbonated drinks that have
medicinal properties (eg can help fight the symptoms of a cold/flu), NI and RoI, August 2015
Men and young consumers would like to see carbonated protein drinks
Figure 58: Consumers who would be willing to buy carbonated sports/energy drinks with added protein, by
gender and age, NI and RoI, August 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Consumer research
Data sources
Market size rationale
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Market segmentation tables
Bottled water
Figure 59: Estimated value of bottled water sector, on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Figure 60: Estimated value of bottled water sector, off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Juice
Figure 61: Estimated value of juice sector, on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Figure 62: Estimated value of juice sector, off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Concentrate
Figure 63: Estimated value of concentrate sector (inc cordials and squash), on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-
20
Figure 64: Estimated value of concentrate sector (inc cordials and squash), off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-
20
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA
NI Toluna data
Figure 65: Where consumers have drunk squash in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August
2015
Figure 66: Where consumers have drunk cordial in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August
2015
Figure 67: Where consumers have drunk still bottled water in the last three months, by demographics, NI,
August 2015
Figure 68: Where consumers have drunk fruit flavoured & barley water in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 69: Where consumers have drunk water flavour enhancer in the last three months, by demographics,
NI, August 2015
Figure 70: Where consumers have drunk iced tea in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August
2015
Figure 71: Where consumers have drunk smoothies in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August
2015
Figure 72: Where consumers have drunk 100% fruit or vegetable juice in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 73: Where consumers have drunk juice drinks in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August
2015
Figure 74: Where consumers have drunk reduced sugar fruit juice drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 75: Where consumers have drunk non-carbonated sports drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 76: Where consumers have drunk non-carbonated energy drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 77: Where consumers have drunk standard cola drinks in the last three months, by demographics,
NI, August 2015
Figure 78: Where consumers have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 79: Where consumers have drunk standard non-cola flavoured soft drinks in the last three months,
by demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 80: Where consumers have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet non-cola flavoured soft drinks in the last
three months, by demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 81: Where consumers have drunk carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 82: Where consumers have drunk mixers to be used with or without alcohol in the last three months,
by demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 83: Where consumers have drunk carbonated water with added flavour in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 84: Where consumers have drunk carbonated water with added vitamins/minerals in the last three
months, by demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 85: Where consumers have drunk carbonated energy drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 86: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 87: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, NI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 88: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, NI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 89: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future, by
demographics, NI, August 2015
Figure 90: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future, by
demographics, NI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 91: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future, by
demographics, NI, August 2015 (continued)
RoI Toluna data
Figure 92: Where consumers have drunk squash in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August
2015
Figure 93: Where consumers have drunk cordial in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August
2015
Figure 94: Where consumers have drunk still bottled water in the last three months, by demographics, RoI,
August 2015
Figure 95: Where consumers have drunk fruit flavoured & barley water in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 96: Where consumers have drunk water flavour enhancer in the last three months, by demographics,
RoI, August 2015
Figure 97: Where consumers have drunk iced tea in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August
2015
Figure 98: Where consumers have drunk smoothies in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August
2015
Figure 99: Where consumers have drunk 100% fruit or vegetable juice in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 100: Where consumers have drunk juice drinks in the last three months, by demographics, RoI,
August 2015
Figure 101: Where consumers have drunk reduced sugar fruit juice drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 102: Where consumers have drunk non-carbonated sports drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 103: Where consumers have drunk non-carbonated energy drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 104: Where consumers have drunk standard cola drinks in the last three months, by demographics,
RoI, August 2015
Figure 105: Where consumers have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 106: Where consumers have drunk standard non-cola flavoured soft drinks in the last three months,
by demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 107: Where consumers have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet non-cola flavoured soft drinks in the last
three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 108: Where consumers have drunk carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 109: Where consumers have drunk mixers to be used with or without alcohol in the last three
months, by demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 110: Where consumers have drunk carbonated water with added flavour in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 111: Where consumers have drunk carbonated water with added vitamins/minerals in the last three
months, by demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 112: Where consumers have drunk carbonated energy drinks in the last three months, by
demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 113: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, RoI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 114: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, RoI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 115: Types of non-carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the
future, by demographics, RoI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 116: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future,
by demographics, RoI, August 2015
Figure 117: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future,
by demographics, RoI, August 2015 (continued)
Figure 118: Types of carbonated drinks/drink qualities that consumers would be willing to buy in the future,
by demographics, RoI, August 2015 (continued)
UK RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Consumer research
Sampling and weighting
Definitions
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Brand & Social Media Research
Trade research
Informal
Formal
Desk research
Statistical Forecasting

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