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Hot and Cold Cereal - US - August 2015

Hot and Cold Cereal - US - August 2015

The hot and cold cereals market continues to see sales declines similar to recent years, mostly driven by the cold cereal segment, with many consumers believing offerings are too processed and not convenient enough. The only growth occurring is in hot cereal, albeit from a small base. To grow the category, manufacturers will need to focus on developing more natural, better-for-you offerings that can be prepared and consumed easily on the go.

This report looks at the following areas:

Real sustenance needed
Convenience is key
Nostalgic nourishment


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Figure 2: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Figure 3: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Cereal consumption, May 2015
Figure 5: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Figure 6: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Chilling performance overall
Cold cereal takes an icy blow
Hot cereal continues to warm up
Cereal sales get soggy
Declines in cold cereal sales cause category slump
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Future of cold cereal sours from not-so-healthful image
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20, in $ millions
Nourishment for hot cereal sales
Figure 9: Percent change in sales of hot and cold cereal, 2011-20
Other retail channels having success
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereals by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015, in $ millions
Figure 11: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15, in $ millions
Market perspective
Protein-, fiber-rich items pose threat
Figure 12: Number of people purchasing high-fiber and high-protein foods while watching diet, 2013-15
Competition from frozen, foodservice
Figure 13: Reasons for eating less cereal, any agree, by generation, May 2015
Market factors
Sugary reputation still a concern
Figure 14: Cereal consumption - eating more only, by important nutritional factors, April-March 2015
“Baby bounce” expected to impact market
Figure 15: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
More of a good thing
Everything old is new again
Fiber alone not enough
Committing to convenience
Manufacturer sales of hot and cold cereals
In cold, the large companies struggle most
Figure 16: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
PepsiCo leads in hot cereal
Figure 17: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
More convenience, portability desired
Figure 18: MULO sales of Dole Fruit & Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
Gluten-free continues to make gains
Figure 19: MULO sales of Chex Gluten-Free Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
Brands working in more health, wellness benefits
Figure 20: MULO sales of Cheerios Protein, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
Consumer nostalgia leads to throwback products, packaging
Figure 21: MULO sales of French Toast Crunch, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
What’s struggling?
Sweetened cereals see sales declines
Figure 22: MULO sales of Krave, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
High fiber alone isn’t enough
Figure 23: MULO sales of Grape Nuts, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
What’s next?
GMO-free claims keep growing
Removal of artificial ingredients continues
Figure 24: Claims consumers would like to see more, by generation, February 2015
Opportunity for private label innovation is strong
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
More healthy attributes wanted
On-the-go options appeal
Cereal’s snack-worthiness could lead to new opportunities
Personalization is critical
Cereal attitudes
Sugary cold cereals increasingly get passed up
Figure 25: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, May 2015
Figure 26: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
Cereal’s sweet spot
Consumers continue warming up to hot cereal
Figure 27: Hot cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
Figure 28: Cereal Consumption, May 2015
Cereal and healthfulness
They’re making smarter choices
Figure 29: Agreement with attitudes toward food packaging, top five, March 2014
Cereal preferences
People want to personalize
Figure 30: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal convenience
On-the-go options important to busy consumers
Figure 31: Attitudes toward cereal, by demographics, any agree May 2015
Cereal satisfaction
Filling, energizing cereals wanted
Figure 32: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal occasions
Cereal is a snack-worthy option
Figure 33: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal and the past
Consumers fondly remember brands from their childhood
Figure 34: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal and private label
Store brands are finding favor
Figure 35: Attitudes toward Cereal, by demographics, May 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations and terms
Appendix – The market
Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 39: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 44: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of cold cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of hot cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by gluten-free certification or labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending
4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by ancient grains claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
Appendix – Key players
Figure 51: MULO sales of cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 52: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 53: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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