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Forecourt & Convenience Retailing - Ireland - June 2015

Forecourt & Convenience Retailing - Ireland - June 2015

“C-stores and forecourts are primarily being used for top-up shopping when Irish consumers run out of essential food items. These stores are predominantly used in residential neighbourhood areas by Irish consumers aged 45-54. Convenience and forecourt retailers should look to focus on these locations and this consumer group for growth in the convenience and forecourt retailing market.”

– James Wilson, Research Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

What implications does the downward pressure on food prices have for c-stores and forecourts?
Which convenience store brands are Irish consumers using regularly?
How are Irish consumers using c-stores and forecourts?
Where are Irish consumers most likely to use c-stores?


INTRODUCTION
Key themes of the report
Data sources
Market size rationale
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Market
Forecast
Figure 1: Indexed value of convenience and forecourt retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Market factors
NI consumers more likely to top up at c-stores than RoI counterparts
Food price deflation an issue for c-stores and forecourts, welcomed by consumers
Recovering transport usage could drive footfall to nearby c-stores
Growth of new car registrations could boost forecourt usage
Smaller households to boost demand for top-up shopping at c-stores
Companies, brands and innovations
The consumer
Consumer promiscuity presents a challenge for c-store retailers
Figure 2: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly (ie
once a month or more), NI, March 2015
Figure 3: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly (ie
once a month or more), RoI, March 2015
Irish consumers show strong preference for neighbourhood stores
Figure 4: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, NI and RoI, March 2015
C-stores and forecourts used for top-up shopping
Figure 5: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, NI and RoI, March 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
What implications does the downward pressure on food prices have for c-stores and
forecourts?
The facts
The implications
Which convenience store brands are Irish consumers using regularly?
The facts
The implications
How are Irish consumers using c-stores and forecourts?
The facts
The implications
Where are Irish consumers most likely to use c-stores?
The facts
The implications
MARKET OVERVIEW
Key points
NI consumers most likely to top up at c-stores
Figure 6: C-stores used by consumers for top-up shopping, NI and RoI, October 2014
Food price deflation entrenched in RoI
Figure 7: Annualised CPI vs food price inflation, RoI, 2010-15
Food prices continue to fall in NI due to stronger use of loss leaders
Figure 8: Annualised CPI vs food price inflation, UK (including NI), 2010-15
Public transport usage declines in RoI
Figure 9: Total passenger numbers, by national carrier (bus and train), RoI, 2008-13
NI train stations offer opportunity for c-stores
Figure 10: Total passenger numbers using public transport (bus and train), NI, 2009-14
Petrol station forecourts could benefit from growth in new car registrations
Figure 11: Indexed total new car registrations, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Long-term decline in smoking a threat to c-stores
Figure 12: Percentage of UK (including NI) population that smoke cigarettes, by gender, 1974-2012
Figure 13: How frequently consumers smoke, NI and RoI, July 2013
Smaller households will impact type of shopping done in Ireland
Figure 14: Household size projections, NI, 2012-20
Figure 15: Household sizes, RoI, 1991-2011
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
NI consumers show higher levels of purchasing groceries online
Figure 16: Consumers who have purchased groceries (for home delivery) online in the last 12 months,
by device, NI and RoI, December 2014
Figure 17: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shop with (online), NI and RoI, October 2014
Discounters show strong usage for main shop in RoI, Tesco in NI
Figure 18: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with (in-store), NI and RoI, October
2014
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales at convenience and forecourt retailers expected to grow in 2015
Figure 19: Estimated value of convenience and forecourt retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Recovery expected to be faster in NI compared to RoI
Figure 20: Indexed value of convenience and forecourt retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
Number of petrol station forecourts increases, but only marginally
Figure 21: Number of petrol station forecourts, NI and RoI, 2012 and 2013
Maxol has largest branded presence in NI, but supermarkets selling greater volume
Figure 22: Petrol station forecourt market share, NI, 2013
Independent petrol stations a key channel in RoI
Figure 23: Petrol station forecourt market share, RoI, 2013
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
COMPANIES AND INNOVATIONS
Key points
Examples of innovation
Branded products grow share of NPD activity
Figure 24: New product development in the UK and Irish convenience foods market, 2009-15
Maxol improves forecourt proposition in NI and RoI
Topaz takes forecourt retailing into ‘new territory’ with Re.Store
Company profiles – Convenience stores
Centra
Costcutter
Co-operative (NI only)
Londis (RoI only)
Mace (NI)
Mace (RoI)
Nisa
Spar (NI)
Spar (RoI)
Tesco
Company profiles – Forecourt retailers
Applegreen
Asda (NI only)
British Petroleum
Esso (RoI only)
Go
Maxol
Sainsbury’s (NI only)
Texaco
Top Oil
THE CONSUMER – CONVENIENCE RETAILERS USED
Key points
Six in 10 using Spar/Eurospar regularly in NI
Figure 25: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), NI, March 2015
Spar/Eurospar most popular among women and 45-54s
Figure 26: Consumers who are regularly (ie once a month or more) using Spar/Eurospar, by gender,
age and social class, NI, March 2015
Centra leads the RoI convenience store market
Figure 27: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), RoI, March 2015
Irish men a key market for Centra
Figure 28: Consumers who are regularly (ie once a month or more) using Centra, by gender, RoI,
March 2015
RoI Millennials most likely to use Spar/Eurospar regularly
Figure 29: Consumers who are regularly (ie once a month or more) using Spar/Eurospar, by age, RoI,
March 2015
Tesco Express popular with single Irish consumers
Figure 30: Consumers who are regularly (ie once a month or more) using Tesco Express, by marital
status, RoI, March 2015
THE CONSUMER – LOCATIONS OF CONVENIENCE STORE USE
Key points
Neighbourhood c-stores most popular among Irish consumers
Figure 31: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, NI and RoI, March 2015
Women a key market for neighbourhood c-stores
Figure 32: Consumers who are most likely to use a neighbourhood store (eg suburban, local parade of
shops), by gender and age, NI and RoI, March 2015
Irish men most likely to use petrol station forecourts
Figure 33: Consumers who are most likely to use a petrol station forecourt store, by gender, age and
social class, NI and RoI, March 2015
Town centre c-stores popular among RoI students
Figure 34: Consumers who are most likely to use a town centre/high street/city centre store, by work
status, NI and RoI, March 2015
THE CONSUMER – TYPES OF SHOPPING COMPLETED IN CONVENIENCE STORES
Key points
Consumers topping up at c-stores and forecourts
Figure 35: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, NI and RoI, March 2015
Millennials regularly shopping at c-stores while 45-54s use them to top up
Figure 36: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by gender and age, RoI,
March 2015
Figure 37: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by gender and age, NI,
March 2015
Newspapers and magazines still popular, but circulation decline a threat
Workers and RoI students buying lunch from c-stores
Figure 38: Consumers purchasing lunchtime foods/snacks from c-stores and forecourts, by work status,
NI and RoI, March 2015
Hot food a growth opportunity for c-stores
Irish men main buyers of cigarettes at c-stores and forecourts
Figure 39: Consumers purchasing cigarettes from c-stores and forecourts, by gender and age, NI and
RoI, March 2015
APPENDIX
NI Toluna data
Figure 40: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, NI, March 2015
Figure 41: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, NI, March 2015 (continued)
Figure 42: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, NI, March 2015 (continued)
Figure 43: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, by demographics, NI, March
2015
Figure 44: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, by demographics, NI, March
2015 (continued)
Figure 45: How often consumers use c-stores/ forecourts located in town centre/high street/city centres,
by demographics, NI, March 2015
Figure 46: How often consumers use neighbourhood store (eg suburban, local parade of shops), by
demographics, NI, March 2015
Figure 47: How often consumers use petrol station forecourt store, by demographics, NI, March 2015
Figure 48: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, NI,
March 2015
Figure 49: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, NI,
March 2015 (continued)
Figure 50: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, NI,
March 2015 (continued)
RoI Toluna data
Figure 51: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, RoI, March 2015
Figure 52: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, RoI, March 2015 (continued)
Figure 53: Convenience store brands (including c-store and forecourts) used by consumers regularly
(ie once a month or more), by demographics, RoI, March 2015 (continued)
Figure 54: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, by demographics, RoI, March
2015
Figure 55: Locations where consumers are most likely to use c-stores, by demographics, RoI, March
2015 (continued)
Figure 56: How often consumers use c-stores/ forecourts located in town centre/high street/city centres,
by demographics, RoI, March 2015
Figure 57: How often consumers use neighbourhood store (eg suburban, local parade of shops), by
demographics, RoI, March 2015
Figure 58: How often consumers use petrol station forecourt store, by demographics, RoI, March 2015
Figure 59: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, RoI,
March 2015
Figure 60: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, RoI,
March 2015
Figure 61: Types of shopping that consumers use c-stores and forecourts for, by demographics, RoI,
March 2015 (continued)
UK RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Consumer research
Sampling and weighting
Definitions
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Brand & Social Media Research
Trade research
Informal
Formal
Desk research
Statistical Forecasting

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